To: Danny who wrote (39296 ) 2/14/2000 7:28:00 PM From: David E. Taylor Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 45548
Danny: There's a simple answer to your Q, and a more complicated one. The simple answer is that when 3-com distributes PALM to COMS holders, you get to keep your 100 COMS and you are given your 150 PALM at no charge (that's "free", as in the Ameritrade ads). The complicated part is that you don't get the PALM shares until August. Until then PALM will trade on a razor thin float of 23 million shares, and is likely to get bid up to insane levels. But no-one expects COMS to trade "at par" to whatever the PALM price is ("par" = say $35 for COMS + 1.5 x PALM's price), we just all hope the eagle will drag up the elephant at least part way to the par value. Now, whatever PALM is trading at as D-Day approaches in August -- whether it be 30, 40, 50, 100 -- how do you think the then holders of the 23 million PALM will view the impending addition of 530 million new shares to the float? With nightmares of their huge profits evaporating I'd say. And how do you think the holders of COMS -- who will be hopefully sitting on some significant gains of their own -- will view this coming event? My guess is the same as the holders of PALM. The result, IMO, will be a sell off in both PALM and COMS at some point prior to D-Day. When this will occur and how much of a sell off will take place depends on a host of factors, including but not limited to the then price of PALM, the discount to "par" value at which COMS is trading, the effect of the June earnings reports for PALM and COMS, the extent of the usual (and expected) summer down draft in tech stocks generally, and whatever good or bad news happens our way specific to either PALM or COMS. There seems to be no reason to unload any COMS prior to IPO day (week of 2/28), unless the run up in COMS gets to insane levels before then. Although the present price of the PALM IPO is 14-16, the market is in the process of re-pricing the issue for Goldman et al -- at today's close of 67, the (approx) value of PALM is at 21 (allowing 35 for COMS). How much further this goes is anybody's guess. Good luck and keep your wits about you. David T.