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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JayPC who wrote (1157)	2/15/2000 3:36:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1782

Thanks, Jay. It's hard to recall just how many times over the past fifteen months we've come to the same general conclusions on both the ATHM and LMT boards, and more recently here. I just did a random search of ATHM past postings, and came up with this one: techstocks.com

To: JayPC who wrote (1157)	2/16/2000 1:25:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1782

>>sounds familiar Jay, I should have added that yes, it sounds familiar and consistent with the remedies that would be required if Home were to stay with the existing DOCSIS architecture. Of course, the latter is the mindset that exists at all of the MSOs, hence at Home and RoadRunner, too, and my reluctant agreement with Medin is limited to this context, only. In actuality, he should be mustering his engineers and geeks and looking for alternatives to black coaxial-based fixes which use radio signals on black cable. T is not ATHM. At some point they may not even be on the same side of the fence with one another to the extent that they are now. Medin needs to be looking forward to a point in time when Home is a Sovereign Entity. They need to define their own architecture and get away from the clutches of the MSOs and their affiliated indsutry players, unless those players (including Cable Labs) somehow miraculously "sees the light" very soon. The alternatives I speak of are mentioned in piecemeal fashion, scattered throughout this, when we're not talking about more tangible things. No, I don't have a final product to offer Home at this time (maybe soon). Then again, I don't have the capital resources and staffing that a Medin does in this type of situation, either. I've read what some of the Home engineers are capable of, and I've been duly impressed in the past. But right now, IMO, they are being stifled and held to the law of lore. Worse, these Internet people at Home (and RR and Charter and the Independents) are slowly but surely being conditioned to think like cable folks. Truck rolls, my foot. I've never had Compuserve or Prodigy or AOL pull up to my driveway. Why the difference between these models? Because the MSO model maintains proprietary characteristics which do not leverage the history of experience and off the shelf availability of proven technologies. They've virtually invented their own from scratch. Brilliant, eh? In fairness, they were not alone in failing to adequately anticipate the present tsunami effect that the Internet has unleashed, but at some point they need to smell the coffee, get over it, and move on. The problem is, as I see it they don't even know (or, they are not acknowledging at this time) that these conditions exist. Getting back to the Internet personnel at Home and RR, being conditioned to behave like cable folks is okay, if they intend to go on fixing rusting F-type connectors atop poles and leaky taps into the home. But it's not a good idea if they indeed plan to lead the next revolution on the 'net. The pipes will slowly start to fill up soon, application sizes are getting bigger and fatter, corporations will continue to avoid awarding huge telecommuting contracts to these outfits due to unacceptable Acceptable Use Policies, and the work-at-home professionals are getting very impatient with the limitations inherent in cable's current upstream capabilities. They are in fact being forced to pay outrageous prices to dsl outfits for bidirectional 128 and 512 kb/s services. Someone is going to identify a huge opportunity here. From my perspective, there is no reason why it shouldn't be @Home/RR/Indies, but it will more likely be a consortium of entrepreneurs aligned with the utilities or some similar combination of mavericks. And I wouldn't rule out some of the ILECs just yet, either, given some of the PONs and FTTx trials they now have in the works which approximate the architectures we've been speaking about here. Regards, Frank