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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (8237)	2/16/2000 11:59:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

>>If your guess is right, "start of the slump in late 2000 or early 2001," then I would guess we would see a slump in stock prices beginning roughly in the summer or fall of 2000. The stock market always seems to lead a slump in orders.<< Now we're treading on shaky ground. I'm placing the start of the slump at the point where overcapacity hits the market and chip ASPs start to turn down. Actual equipment orders may hold up for 3-6 months beyond that, since it takes the chip companies a while to figure out what's going on. So, if my model holds, selling in summer 2000 would probably be a little early. Selling in summer 2001 would probably be quite a bit late. But again, I'm not betting any of my own money on this model. Free advice is worth what you pay for it. Katherine