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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (30425)	2/17/2000 11:39:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

20% growth is mainly forecast as a basis Novell considers sustainable - could you imagine them announcing 50% and not even coming close? Also, many companies have yet to implement their extranet/e-commerce solutions. Right now I believe the numbers are around 35% of companies are participating in B2B e-commerce while that number is believed to grow to 90% by 2003 (if not sooner)! Remember, Novell is ALREADY in 83% of all corporate networks of Fortune 100 companies (and probably a high % of Fortune 500 companies as well). Extending these "islands" into the 'Net will not be as hard as you'd think for Novell (once it has all the pieces in place). Right now, the only thing holding Novell's growth back is a fully complimentary solution-based front-end and back-end to the Directory that facilitates B2B e-commerce. In my opinion, digitalme and i-Chain can be the first iterations of those missing pieces. Add to that the caching product and VPN product and it all begins to come together. Another thing to keep in mind with regard to the caching market - even if Novell can maintain the same marketshare as Inktomi, their revenues will be different since ICS costs about 1/10th the price of an Inktomi setup and as we've seen, outperforms it. There are only a handful of companies that can afford to use Inktomi's solution while there are countless companies who will benefit from Novell's "better bang for the buck" solution. Regards, Peter J Strifas