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Non-Tech : Ashton Technology (ASTN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (3368)	2/18/2000 12:05:00 AM
From: mst2000	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 4443

It's amazing how 2 people can look at the one company and see two completely different things. I can't argue that the delays surrounding the launch of eVWAP have not been a big disappointment to those of us who have been here for almost 4 years since the IPO -- and eVWAP still isn't operational. Yet, for all the dilution (quadrupling the ## of shares) and difficulty that this delay has caused, the stock is double what it was selling for at the IPO - basically a 28% annual return to its original stockholders - and the future is very bright for Ashton. I know it is difficult for you to think in terms of sticking with an investment for 3-4 years in this type of development stage company. And I am weary of the "boy who cried wolf" aspects of this -- weary even of defending it. But these are the facts: 1. The stock is not "massively underperforming" historically -- 28% a year is not a bad return - and, for you short termers, depending on when you bought in 1999, you are up 400-500% in a year, or down as much 50%. Heck, it's up 50% in 2000 as we sit here today, and that's after a bad day. 2. The company, although it has not yet executed the launch of eVWAP with liquidity, is on the verge of doing so. Its SEC filings state that at least 8 national clearing agents, connecting to 60 institutions and B/D's, are being hard wired into the system, and that it is projected to go live with at least that many participants in Mid-March. Not that I am jumping for joy over it, but I am glad they waited to go live on eVWAP (putting aside the testing phase that started in August) until all of this was accomplished, even at the price of having to wait this long. You call that lack of execution -- I call it execution. With this type of system, which is dependent on liquidity, there is more to execution than flipping a switch. The months of waiting will mean nothing if Merrill and Paine Webber and 6 other national clearing agents like them, and all of their institutional customers, utilize the system when it does go live. So I see this as a chess game - you sit and think and plan and develop and position and then, when you are in a well developed position, you strike. The opening and middle game are every bit as important as the end game, even more so, but the strength of a position is not necessarily as recognizable until the attacking phase of the game begins. So when you say "lack of execution", I honestly respond by saying there is more execution than meets the eye -- you are looking only at the surface of things, and at the pace of events, and not at their true essence, which will be felt when the "attacking phase of the game" begins by "Mid March" 3. The cash drain continues, but the company is nowhere near financial trouble. The Q says that they have 24 months of operational cash available, even assuming no revenue from eVWAP in that time period. Gomez is its own company - $30 Million in cash and an IPO in the offing to raise even more money to pay for its development plans - it's totally "off balance sheet" now, but represents a future source of capital for ATG. Auric - you can't deny that Gomez will likely go public and will be a source of capital for ATG. 4. The price of all this has been dilution - and the stock is at $9 because of that, I suppose -- BUT the company has not yet even really begun, and the stock hangs tough at these prices. Does that not tell you something? Do you think Castellano would join the Board of ATG if it was just some kind of bad joke? Does that not tell you that the company is at least entitled to some respect? 5. The 144 selling is completely meaningless, and you know it. The dilution has not been meaningless -- but the 144 sellers (some of whom clearly are not selling - numerous 144's from the same people with comparable or identical share positions are being filed 90 days apart - those are renewals of the 144 filings, big guy, not new selling) have nothing to do with the price of the stock today and reflect nothing about what insiders really think or believe. It is not as if this is my only investment -- most of my current investments are in more well known, profitable medium and large sized companies -- but it is a favorite investment because the idea is so good, the team putting it together is so good, and the forces aligned against it are so bad, that when it succeeds, it is really going to feel great (in addition to making us all a sh*tload of $$$). And that day just gets closer and closer. I agree that until eVWAP goes live with the 60 institutions and B/Ds, , a squeeze probably will not sustain. But when eVWAP does go live next month, the squeeze will be particularly pleasurable, and you will gain a better appreciation of where we are coming from. Heck, from the sounds you are making, I suspect you may even ride it up. MST