To: Perry P. who wrote (7652 ) 2/19/2000 8:50:00 AM From: Jess Beltz Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 9236
I think the reentry point is wherever the stock is right now! The DSL sector is HOT. The market correction on Friday is the usual (and nearly totally predictable) interest rate jitters associated with (1) Greenspan's bearish noise on the Hill and (2) the upcoming FOMC March meeting where another 25 basis point (at least) rise in rates is now a certainty. I don't believe that this correction is longer-term for the following reasons (1) The economy is humming, so there's no problem with the fundamentals of the economy right now, (2) Steps are being taken to slow down the rise in petroleum prices, which is the biggest component of most indices of inflation (3) The CPI numbers actually came in soft at the tail end of this last week. It was the Chairman's sabre rattling on the Hill that spooked the market. What makes the market gurus nervous about this, and what makes "market psychology" look so black is that the Dow, and most of the big old-time manufacturing and retail firms are getting truly butchered right now. They took the losses they did yesterday on top of similar losses for weeks now. Many Wall Street pundits are also managers of mutual funds right now, with heavy investments in these stocks, and this is really painful for them. They're gloomy and pessimistic right now, and rightly so. They're in danger of being investment counselling dinosaurs, just like Warren Buffet is turning out to be. The fact of the matter is that there isn't much wrong with the old-time companies whose stock prices are being killed at the moment. The simple fact (ala the sector rotation that KHS alluded to) is that investors are seeing that even at the reduced prices, they still don't offer the growth that the tech sector does. Let me go out on a limb here and say that I think that, if anything, the sector rotation will continue and probably accelerate, and that we (on this thread and in this sector) are EXACTLY where we want to be. I sold none of my positions in Aware yesterday, and in fact laid in 20 January 01 calls (at the money) on AOL (for the DSL hook-up play) and bought 2,000 more shares of GNTA (a biotech in cancer-research - programmed cell (tumor) death) that was UP 1 7/8. Hang on campers. No need to fear yet (unless you're in big old stodgy companies). Yesterday's action not withstanding, I think that with the DSL conference coming up at the end of the upcoming week, we'll end the week a lot stronger than we start (on Tuesday). But, like Dennis Miller, "that's just my opinion." Jess.