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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred B. who wrote (76213)	2/19/2000 2:19:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

>>I have always been a demographics guy all along and I still think that demographics(Read 401 K's) still point to a robust bull until at least 2008 so I still think this is a dip to be bought. although a very nervous dip that has never been seen in the last 3 years. i.e. Dow 9850 possible and NASDAQ 3800 possible.<< fred, surely, demographics play a part. i think you over emphasize the magnitude, though. the key is credit creation. stop that and the market tanks. take back that 20% annual money growth in q4 99 and the bull tanks. that is why they won't take it out. i think the bull continues b/c the world will act short term stupid to keep this game going and will wear out kneepads at night. i hope their prayers are answered. one helluva chicken game is being played. one we can't afford to lose - lots of tl and ev wait in the wings...

To: Fred B. who wrote (76213)	2/19/2000 10:46:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Fred, the demographics argument was used during japan's bubble what when wrong? I don't have a url for it but I seem to recall that corporate share buybacks were the the single largest source of demand for stocks ( who needs dividends right) the trouble is companies are borrowing to purchase shares ( leverage) . In 1998, company share buybacks equalled 125% of earnings. What about capital expenditures to maintain capacity or expand? If you read this thread you will see many issues discussed with respect to the quality of earnings (accounting shenanigans) stock options accounting, recurring non recurring write offs, pooling of interest accounting for mergers, in process R&D writeoffs, assets sales used to reduce SGA rather than reported as a separate line ( gain/loss from discontinued operations or extraordinary gain), revenue swaps for i-nut companies, exclusion of fulfillment costs from gross profits for e-tailers, et.al. These are real substantive issues the end result is the quality of earnings that companies are reporting are the lowest in history IMO. I won't rehash the distortions in the gov't statistics like hedonic pricing for chained weighted GDP overstating GDP and productivity growth, temp workers in manufacturing classified as service sector employees overstating productivity in the manufacturing. Geometric weighting in price indices. The only thing new about this new era is the magnitude of debt, deception, delusion and overvaluations. BTW in case you haven't figured it out I remain a forever bear. I hope you find a chair when the music stops. mike ho ho ho

To: Fred B. who wrote (76213)	2/19/2000 11:36:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

Fred, New Era accounting siliconinvestor.com excellent article brought to you by the long haired bear -g- Which earnings numbers do you rely upon the numbers companies report to the public with impunity or the numbers reported to the paper tiger SEC for which they are held legally accountable - not that they would do much anyway. As Clinton would say it depends on what you mean by earnings. mike ho ho ho

To: Fred B. who wrote (76213)	2/19/2000 12:59:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Fred, Your assessment of the value of this thread is rather interesting. I suspect most people here have made more on their biotech portfolio than most folks that have been playing in the internet, b2b, etc. sector runs on the NAZ. A couple of these picks were 10 x's profit generators. Most were triples and quads with only one dog. Also there have been some excellent trading sardine plays. Good luck, Joan

To: Fred B. who wrote (76213)	2/19/2000 2:41:00 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

Fred: A question or two. If you have no interest in the opinions expressed on this thread, why are you making an appearance here? This is a thread that DOES have an interest in the opinions of others, and is also interested in a bit of give and take. With respect to Greenspan, I would agree with you that at heart, he is not on the side of the bears, but unfortunately, he is saddled with the need to continue to increase interest rates whether you, I, or anyone else likes it or not. Rising rates squish profits, which usually is less than healthy for stocks. So the question is, does it matter who's side he is on? Long before the averages bottom out, dip buyers will be non-existent. Even now, dip buying anything but the few "darlings" has been a prescription for pain. Now let's test your theories a bit,..... what would persuade you to cease dip buying (other than bankruptcy)? I happen to agree with your deflationary perspective but I would appreciate your provision of some of the more prominent indicators of growth. I'll supply you with a two-to-one ratio of indicators of slowing or non-existent growth if you chose to do so. Best, Earlie

To: Fred B. who wrote (76213)	2/19/2000 3:32:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Fred, What part of these moves have we missed that you have taken down: 1. The huge move up in palladium and platinum. 2. The sextuple in Incyte. 3. The 2000% move in GZTC. 4. The quadrupling of HQH and HQL. 5. Big moves up in Cephalon, Cell Genysis, Medarex, ad infinitum. 6. All the oils where we made money and you sat with your thumb in deep meditation. <g> 7. A huge move up in the yen. Then there were the big bear moves in Compaq, Dell, Solectron, BMC Software et al ad infinitum that you missed completely. And those are only the recent moves. After all, more stocks are going down than up in this bubble. Just because people do not buy the overpriced garbage that you buy does not mean they are missing anything. They are simply making more money with more intelligent choices. Why would anyone need to flame a bag left at the bag door step that is already on fire? <g>