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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (150)	2/19/2000 10:48:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 811

I answered the growth rate expectation in one of my earlier posts and it is also inferable from my earnings projection. These estimates are completely open. Initially EXLN can manage 100% per year for the next several years. That's the delicious thing here. They have put in place the ability to ramp even though they're operating in a new area. Right now the XML/DAP is growing at 200% per quarter, Q on Q, but this will slow AFTER 4 quarters, ceteris paribus, a condition which must be added because the industry is hardly defined. That's why you can't identify competitors so you don't know what the take away rate is. The market will grow at a rate faster than the sum of what everyone in it can provide, so competition issues are not relevant. You may see that everyone including GENA has become an XML B2B provider. This is mostly fluff like adding the word "technology" to your company name. A lot of corporations are going to get burnt because this B2B integration activity is no easy deal. It takes a great deal of expertise to do this right. Doing it right means creating a flexible and scalable solution. No one can do this to the extent that EXLN can and many including Oracle just stick 8i in your hands and give you a telephone number for support. Mostly they provide their teams to get you going, but then you have to scull by yourself. If I have to do that, I only want to go to with EXLN because they have the unique object management experience and have a comprehensive solution. Down this line for the other so called competitors I want to see them control their costs when they get pulled back in to their sale when things don't go so well. Even WEBM is worrisome on this front because by their own admission through their aggregation solution with Persistent, problems can arise form mutual non-interoperability when the aggregation configuration engages real world problems. The real world has a way of finding the stresses at the aggregation seams. These factors will serve to benefit EXLN in a myriad of ways just the dis-synergy of the circumstances of the past worked in the opposite direction. This suggests that after 4 quarters the growth will slow to 100% but then will pick up again after 2 more and really steam. That's when the company may start doing acquisitions and/or mergers. I am making some wild speculations here, but the thing is, I can't see how they won't happen!