Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (10323)	2/21/2000 5:00:00 PM
From: Dataminer1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18929

Hi Everyone, Anticipation of our trip to Vegas got me thinking of years ago when Doug and I were fooling around with a "system" to try and beat the roulette wheel (silly us). We were working with an IBM PC jr. and must have had a lot of free time on our hands. Our original premise was that, while statistically possible, in real life, there was almost no chance that 100 spins of the wheel in a row would come up Black. We proceeded to try and determine the maximum spins of one color that would come up and try to devise a betting system for it. We thought that the idea would be to wait for a pre-determined number of the same color, red or black, to come up in a row, and then start betting. The betting progression went like this: Wait for 7 or more of one color in a row, then bet $2. Losing that bet, the next bet would be $4. Any loss going forward, we would then triple the bet. So it would go 2-4-12-36-108-324-972-2916 (or 2000 if table max). Total bankroll needed to do this would be $4374. Starting at the 7th color in a row, betting this progression would mean that the same color would have to be spun 14 times in a row to lose. Not too likely. Each time a bet was won, you would make a profit equal to 1/2 your current bet. What we found by running 100,000 random simulations of the wheel (including greens), was that you would win, win ,win; until, all of a sudden, you would see 15 or 16 of the same color in a row, evaporating your profits. We were amazed. The computer actually generated one set of 17 in a row! All in all, I think there were less that 6 sets out of 100,000 that were losers. You should have seen the computer paper hanging on the wall! The moral of the story is that we are still convinced it could work, only it would have to be in Monte Carlo, with no table limit and an unlimited bankroll (and only 1 green). I still say you can't roll 100 Blacks in a row, though any statistician knows that every spin is independent and there is a 50-50 chance (worse with the greens). Oh, well. Back to the drawing board! Anyone know how to count cards? D1 ps. This all got me thinking that AOL might be a good AIM stock now that it's down almost 50% from the high. See any similarities?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (10323)	2/21/2000 10:30:00 PM
From: SS Heatwole	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18929

Hi Tom, I noticed the special fairs for Midwest this weekend. The only problem is having to stay an extra night (Saturday). I figure I could get into real trouble having all Sunday to try D1's roulette plan. You know, if you didn't wear the big cheese hat and walk around chanting "buy from the scared and sell to the greedy" you might not need a body guard. Maybe if Lemonhead brings the AIM shirts and hats we can keep you out of trouble. Can't wait for May! Regards Scott