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To: Master (Hijacked) who wrote (6544)	2/21/2000 12:33:00 PM
From: Smacs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

Suppose Nasdaq stocks increase by 1/10th (one tenth) of last year's pace. That means growth of 8.5%. Take away taxes and you are still left with 4.25% return. It is still better than your bonds. The problem with ALL the arguments thus far is that they depend on market timing. David's going to miss out on a whole lot of gains because he's pulled out of the market too early. You're going to get nailed when the market tumbles because you've got all your money in equities (gross generalizations, I know. I have no idea what either of your portfolios actually look like). Point is, it's prudent to take the middle road (particularly if you're nearing retirement in the next 10-15 years). Keeping a portion of your money in bonds or money markets IS a great idea, but pulling out of the markets completely is foolish. Even an aggressive investor should try to keep 10-15% of his/her investments in liquid assets in case there IS a steep market dip. I want to be able to cash in on a big market drop and snap up the cheap shares to offset any losses that I may have incurred in my equities. Bonds, MM are easy to get out of but still accumulate interest while they're sitting there. Market timing is dumb (IMHO;) -sm-

To: Master (Hijacked) who wrote (6544)	2/21/2000 1:41:00 PM
From: Gerald Walls	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Let's take a pessimistic viewpoint and call for a bear market this year, which you seem to continuously predicate. Suppose Nasdaq stocks increase by 1/10th (one tenth) of last year's pace. That means growth of 8.5%. Interesting definition of a "bear market". 8.5% gains would be "slightly below average", and a "bear market" would be losses of 20% or more.

To: Master (Hijacked) who wrote (6544)	2/21/2000 10:23:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

"The way I figure it, your investments in bonds would yield at best 6.5%. If you are in a 50% tax bracket, that nets you 3.25%. Not bad, only in your opinion of course!" It's all in a tax sheltered account. "Suppose Nasdaq stocks increase by 1/10th (one tenth) of last year's pace. That means growth of 8.5%. Take away taxes and you are still left with 4.25% return. It is still better than your bonds." Given your supposition, I agree. If it drops, however, that is another story. Ciao, David Todtman