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Biotech / Medical : VISX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mts362 who wrote (1626)	2/22/2000 5:38:00 PM
From: Charlie Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1754

You think an additional 750,000 patients (eyes) will get VISX procedures because of a $150 price cut??? Some of the incremental revenue to VISX will come from patients that would've had the procedure done on another laser ex the price cut. Another portion comes from new LVC patients due to lower prices in the industry. Not sure which of these would be larger.

To: mts362 who wrote (1626)	2/22/2000 6:12:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1754

The forecast for procedure volume in 2000 was about 1.5 Million. VISX is estimated to hold a 70-80% market share. That would amount to 1.0 to 1.2M procedures in 2000. If procedure volume accelerates by 50% and VISX moved from 70% share to 75% share, the procedure revenue would fall by about 35%. Add incremental service and laser sale revenue and the shortfall is less. So, say they go from $2.00 to $1.20. At $22 they are selling at 18x forward in a market that is growing north of 50%. That is the point.