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Biotech / Medical : VISX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MGV who wrote (1632)	2/22/2000 6:31:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1754

Bottomline: 1 year from today, VISX is up at least 50% from today's close. If volume increases by only 33%, and market share is flat, they make north of $1.00 in 2001 and north of 1.50 in 2002. With a 30 multiple they would be reasonably priced north of $40. I would buy at $18 and at $20.

To: MGV who wrote (1632)	2/22/2000 6:33:00 PM
From: mts362	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1754

forecast for procedure volume in 2000 was about 1.5 Million. 1.5mil in '00 is higher than anything I've seen recently. Goldman, SG Cowen, and ING Barings estimate 1.2mm, 1.375mm, and 1.35mm, respectively. If procedure volume accelerates by 50%... Also very aggressive Add incremental service and laser sale revenue and the shortfall is less. Service should be flat this year, and laser sales should decline each of the next 3 years. I agree that VISX, now @ $17-18, is very cheap. I just think your #s are aggressive