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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fulop who wrote (4896)	2/23/2000 9:09:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14638

Jim, It was written by two of their research analysts and probably a score of researchers. It probably took a while to compile. It has pictures of Lucents's MEMS technology, and the box gear folks sell. Tons of architecture diagrams and tables, charts, etc. On another subject, here is an excerpt from the report on Optical NETWORK MANAGEMENT. From their perspective, it looks like the gear and MANAGEMENT capability are tightly woven, and whomever has BOTH will emerge as the eventual leader. Read this and tell me what NT is doing in this regard, if anything.. ____________ Winner Takes All in Network Management The key attraction of a mesh optical network is the ability to provision end-to-end services remotely. A carrier should eventually be able to provision an optical wavelength service from one point to another, and set the system's parameters to determine acceptable restoration time if the line goes down. This vision involves a paradigm shift from traditional network management. Today, carriers primarily use network management to super-vise and control physical segments and pipes in their networks. Particularly important boxes, such as large digital cross connects, have their own sophisticated, high-level network management systems. The optical mesh vision, in contrast, involves a more holistic view of the network and the software that manages it. An important theme that we have emphasized to investors in our sector is that the equipment providers mirror the service providers and their networks. For example, as service providers move to offer voice and data on a single network, so too equipment providers have moved to supply converged voice-data equipment, and have been through a process of telecom-datacom industry consolidation. Similarly, we expect the convergence of wireless and wireline (think about who owns the wireless networks now compared to five years ago!) to result ultimately in a parallel development in the equipment provider world. We think this has strong implications for carriers' move to a unified mesh network. A unified network implies a unified network management system. We see two possibilities for this. Either a few vendors will own the management of each carrier's entire network. Or network management software will become sufficiently standardized to enable true interoperability. An industry group, called the Optical Domain Service Interconnect (ODSI) group, has been formed to promote optical interconnection protocols to allow for end-to-end management and control of optical connections. However, from historical experience, the chances of achieving cross-vendor interoperability look unlikely in the short term. Our speculative conclusion is that being a first (or at least early) mover in providing intelligent switches and end-to-end network man-agement for the new optical world is a powerful advantage. It could lead to dominant market share in the future.