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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (37474)	2/26/2000 10:05:00 AM
From: Ted The Technician	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Prophet, I like your guesstimate. I agree that it's conservative. The annual report shows a 40% tax rate for 97 and 98 and a 37% tax rate for 99. I think the overall rate would drop as royalties will become significantly larger than contract revenues. Royalties should be realized on the income statement the same time as it is reported for tax purposes. Thanks Ted the Technician

To: The Prophet who wrote (37474)	4/9/2001 8:54:55 AM
From: Scumbria	Respond to of 93625

Prophet, More proof of your psychic powers, part I My guesstimate is that RMBS should be valued at 20 times 2003 earnings. I see 50% of $80 billion DRAM/ASIC/controller market in 2003 = $40 billion x 2% average royalty = $800 million = $720 million (deduct 10% expenses) - $240 million taxes = $480 million / 24 million shares; roughly $20 per share x 20 p/e = $400. This is very conservative since we use a 20 p/e; no communication devices; only $80 billion in DRAM and related products; and only a 50% market penetration. Play with these numbers a little, and you can see 600-1000. Message 12958086 The true slope of RMBS' earnings curve will not be appreciated until the Q3 earnings in October. At that time, there will no longer be any way of denying the future. However, until then, everything will be based on conjecture. Should be fun! Message 13247011 Rambus cheated; Rambus cheated. It's not fair, mom, it's not fair. Message 14023770 You forget one thing, Bilow: manufacturing efficiencies are driving the price of RDRAM down, whereas supply/demand is driving SDRAM down. When the supply/demand imbalances swing back, SDRAM prices will rise as RDRAM continues to fall. My guess is that by mid 2001, we should see RDRAM PC800 in the 1.50 range, with SDRAM near 1.00. Message 14812116 Though I am not an electrical engineer, I believe RMBS is on solid footing in the long run for two reasons. First, by all accounts, there is no real alternative to RDRAM right now once the need for the bandwidth grows. Second, in my experience, those tech companies which are highly focused on one particular area of technology where few others are focused, invariably know a lot more about the subject than any "expert" relied upon in the media. Farmwald and Horowitz are preeminent experts in their field; RMBS has over 100 engineers focused on the chip-to-chip interface issue, and they've been at it for 10 years and 100 patents. I would not bet against them. Message 12653357 Actually, I think it's inevitable that AMD will go RDRAM. Message 14010114 Morris Chang, chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW) (NYSE:TSM - news) (TSMC), the world's top chip foundry, or made-to-order chipmaker, recently said, ``I can't say that semiconductors are no longer cyclical but think the best and most bountiful part of this cycle will come at the earliest in mid-2002.'' Message 14037925 I would pay $3,500 just to watch Sherry Gerber's "shocked" face when the Bus runs her over at 200 and a bucket full of new DRAMurai SDRAM licensees. Message 14037940 Oooh, very "ominous" that possibility. Perhaps Intel has secretly changed its strategy and intends to gravitate from RDRAM to memory translator hub PC 133 in order to "trick" the competition. But, shhh!, let's not start a rumor. Message 13611793 RMBS stock price predictions for the period of today through the end of this year: -----------------------------High --- Low --- Close Prophet ----------------- 750 --- 248 ---- 700 Message 13932863 Actually, Bilow appears to be someone who has been wrong about most everything so far, but is very colorful in portraying his views in another light. Some used to call this sophism. Message 13272131 Great theory, John. I think we should ask Bilow to submit to psychological testing. We can pay him in RDRAM, since he believes it will remain so precious and pricey. Message 13379533 More likely, "all things shall pass" and SDRAM will pass to RDRAM eventfully or uneventfully. Message 13681813