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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (34395)	2/24/2000 7:07:00 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, how about a chart plotting book-to-bill versus the semiconductor index (SOX)? Don't know if the SOX data is available back that far but would be interesting to see if we can draw some correlation. If SOX data is not available, how about averaging your usual companies (AMAT, COHU, KLIC, etc) as a quasi-SOX index?

To: Paul V. who wrote (34395)	2/24/2000 8:32:00 AM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Re: are we or aren't we in the early innings? It is really quite simple in concept- this time, is the explosion in demand i.e. chip consumption going to be, one, bigger in volume, and two, more sustained? We can monitor on an on-going basis chip consumption, but have to project from the emerging trends to debate the second part, the length of the expansion. This comes from of course the lessening dependence on PC sales, and the emergence of new applications which consume chips. So far, it does indeed appear that we could be in the middle of a sea change, and this upturn could indeed be better and longer than past ones. But finally, very specific to semi equips, we also have to monitor new fab creation and hope we don't overbuild and overwhelm demand somewhere down the road.