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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (18821)	2/26/2000 3:27:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Elon's price went from the 20s to the 60s in 2 months with no change in it's tornado status. Although it's value chain did improve greatly with the Cisco and Honeywell announcements. Maybe thats a clue we need to focus on more? Exactly. In the strength of this robust market in which any sign of good news is reacted to overwhelmingly, I believe we need to focus on the news that will make the tornado a reasonable degree of certainty if not a slam dunk. The Gorilla Game professes to leave a lot of money on the table in lieu of taking on undue risk. But we're not talking about taking on any more risk once we've recognized the obvious fundamentals. As Bruce showed us, Geoff Moore is recognizing the changed dynamics of the market place and is suggesting that waiting for the tornado to begin is not necessarily the best strategy anymore. I think we need to be flexible in both kinds of markets. Once we get into a bear market -- yes, it will eventually happen even for tech stocks -- I think there is a good possibility that the above strategy will prove to be ill advised. Back to this bull market, does this new strategy mean we should invest in Gemstar as an enabling technology even though the revenue growth is not yet the stuff of a tornado? The only other stock I own that is in this grey area of questionable reason is Citrix. I don't think the tornado is a slam dunk yet. I'd like others' opinion. I encourage others to discuss their stocks that might be in the grey area similarly. --Mike Buckley

To: 100cfm who wrote (18821)	2/26/2000 3:45:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I'm beginning to wonder if we really will be able to identify a potential gorilla entering hypergrowth without having to pay double or triple what it was a month earlier I missed the Elon story as it went along on this thread. Too much going on in my life, I guess. I will buy Monday, and make it my #2 position behind Q. Sell some Q to do it, I am still about 45% Q. When to buy? I looked at Q when it was in the 50's in Jan of last year, and said I would buy it if they won the Ericcson suit. I got it at 90 to start, and paid more as I went along that month. Even I did not have the guts to put everything in the first day! I don't think we are too early on ELON. The CSCO announcement will go down as it's "Ericcson" moment, I think.

To: 100cfm who wrote (18821)	2/27/2000 10:32:00 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

This is probably the stronger reason why HUNT should remain open, not closed or limited to those companies we perceive to be tornado-ing. The value chain formation precedes the tornado, precedes the bowling alley, precedes the chasm. Not every company develops a value chain...some companies are merely part of someone else's. Could this be the first key to finding future gorillas...the first hint...if you can build a chain, you've got that special chance? Doesn't mean it's a sure thing, but without a value chain, you have no chance! We have identified relatively few gorillas, and they've all been significant firms in terms of revenues, market share, profit growth. We've identified gorillas in those terms up to now. But looking back, before those things came to pass, each had a value chain we could have identified. Perhaps, learning more about what even we are doing, we should be looking for the earliest sign, and among the contenders in a given space, picking the strongest chain builder. I might even go so far as to suggest that such evidence would be even easier to spot than revenue, share, and profit growth...who was it, Uncle West, (that name again <ggg>) who pointed out the ELON page listing all it's partnerships...right from it's own web page! Chaz PS...No, Mike. I'm not trying to put you out of business. Your talents would still be required to tell us when these chain-formers will become profitable. <chuckle-chuckle>