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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: the hube who wrote (18842)2/26/2000 8:35:00 PM
From: blan  Respond to of 54805
 
Must say I agree with this word of caution, as much as I like elon. The tracks have been laid, but there's no train! Rather than the wired house, the smart factory is the place to look. How fast is LonWorks being adapted by industry ought to give us signs. I'm still behind on most of my reading, but have there been solid signs of growing revenue streams for elon among industrial clientele? (I'd started down this track before all my DD time was eaten up by personal and work obligations.) Garyx?



To: the hube who wrote (18842)2/26/2000 8:43:00 PM
From: stomper  Respond to of 54805
 
John, thank you for the reply. Like you, I initially thought of ELON as a home networking/automation play. Also like you, I believe that home networking (at least in this country, see below) is years from fruition as far as any kind of widespread standard or acceptance aside from "gee-whiz".
However, I believe the most important space that Echelon is focusing on now is the commercial/industrial automation and monitoring. This is even now a nascent industry with expected growth of 1000% over the next three years. Anything that carries an electonic pulse or signal frequency is fair game to be controlled by the LonWorks protocol. This translates into a potential for trillions (yes, with a T)of neuron chips. Echelon's royalty on each neuron chip is, if i recall correctly, 4-6 cents. The profits will come...consensus is, lol, a nickel for this fiscal year.
I agree with you that the revenues are scary and negligible at best. I happen to think that this model is brilliant. Create the protocol as a standard household/business name, and the business will come to you, competitors or not. Dr. Oshman has spent the last 12 years bringing LonWorks to fruition, by the time anyone else catches up to this point...too late.
Gorilla? Maybe not. Time will tell. I'm thinking it is and have acted accordingly...i've missed a lot of 'em in just a few short years. Thanks again for the reply.

-dave

RE: Foreign home automation

As many on this board know, the European community is particuliarly sensitive to energy uses due to energy costs in those countries. Echelon already has a foot in the door in many of these countries. Home automation will, IMO, a must within the next 24 months in those countries.
It has been mentioned already that Finland has adopted LonWorks as the national standard. As Finns go in technology, so goes Europe.



To: the hube who wrote (18842)2/27/2000 11:44:00 PM
From: chaz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
John,

I'm in agreement with you on ELON's current relationship to the building industry. Ten years of my life were spent talking to building product manufacturers, and I can tell you from that experience that they have a hard row to hoe selling new products to builders.

Until stuff like this hits the mainstream "shelter" magazines like House Beautiful, consumers won't know diddley about it, builders won't be asked about it, so they won't offer it because it just adds to cost in a market the low bidder wins. Architects may know early, but being specified now might only mean it'll be installed when the building, which breaks ground two years from now, gets into the final phases three years from now.

Still, we should teach one another about ELON, so I feel a HUNT report is entirely appropriate. Watching the stock like a hawk, for those who get in, is also appropriate.

Chaz