Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41512)	2/26/2000 10:04:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

Lee: "Many are talkig about the Russell 2000 and viewing it as bullish. Has anyone thought about how it takes less cash to push up the small ones to cover pulling out of the big ones?" Same schit, diff day (er: index). Last week, Bearon's did a piece called "The Russell 13". In it, they list the 13 stocks that contributed 51% of the R2K rise since 6/30/99, and the 20 that contributed 70%. Of the top 13, only 5 were profitable, and they had P/Es ranging between 73 and 1010!

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41512)	2/27/2000 1:59:00 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Respond to of 99985

Lee, Re: ADM We got rain in the midwest this week and the grains and soybeans got hammered. I believe this was part of ADM's problem. I would like to see these guys sell this thing off big time because I am a future buyer. <ggg> Joan

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41512)	2/27/2000 9:02:00 AM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<all I see is mass distribution going on>> Lee, someone asked LG how he knows when this is occuring, but LG said it was just his opinion. Can you gives us any indicators you use. I think you are right, but it is just my opinon as well! TIA

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41512)	2/27/2000 9:35:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Lee: Not good comparisons...Dell started off in his dorm room. I don't know the whole story but I believe SI started off pretty small itself. There are many stories of tech or internet companies starting off on a shoe string... If your intentions are just to supplement your thread on SI then you have no conflict. As I have done, the message board for my web site is this thread...the MDA Web Site is now and always been to supplement this thread! Regards, LG

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41512)	2/27/2000 9:36:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

Nasdaq May Top 5000 on Demand for Computer and Telecommunications Shares By Nick Olivari Investors See Nasdaq Index Topping 5000: U.S. Stocks Outlook New York, Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Nasdaq 5000? Some money managers say the Nasdaq Composite Index is headed toward another milestone, driven by demand for shares of computer and telecommunications companies. ``We don't see any major glitches in the tech story,' said Dan Cook, a money manager with StoneRidge Investment Partners LLC in Malvern, Pennsylvania, who manages $880 million. ``Business looks good and the money is flowing' to Nasdaq listed stocks. The Nasdaq gained 4 percent last week, about half of the amount it would take to reach 5000. The index finished the week at 4590.50, falling 27.15 points on Friday. The index closed at a record on Thursday. One reason managers such as Cook are optimistic that the Nasdaq index is headed higher is that as the index has been outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average, they expect more money to flow out of companies such as International Paper Co. and American Express Co., and into stocks like Cisco Systems Inc. The Nasdaq is up 12.8 percent so far this year, compared with a decline of 14.22 percent for the Dow average and a drop of 9.25 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500. Edmund Cowart, a fund manager at Eagle Asset Management Inc. which oversees $7 billion in St. Petersburg, Florida, said it's significant that the indexes have gone in different directions on a large number of days this year. The Nasdaq has gained on 12 days this year when the Dow fell. According to MarketHistory.com, the last time the performance of the indices has diverged over a similar period of seven weeks was in February 1999 and before that in March 1998. Cowart said that tells him money is flowing out of industrial companies and into the telecommunications, computer and biotechnology industries that account for about four fifths of the companies in the Nasdaq index. ``Money is moving from value to growth,' said Cowart. ``It's rotation into the things that have been working like Cisco Systems and out of the things that are down and out.' Indices Diverge Cisco Systems closed the week at 132 3/4, a gain of 5.5 percent. With a market value of $454 billion, it recently overtook General Electric Co. as the world's second-largest company and is now closing in on Microsoft Corp., which has a market capitalization of $475 billion. For the week, the S&P 500 index declined 0.95 percent, led by Fluor Corp. and Novell Inc., each of which dropped more than 25 percent. The big gainers in the S&P for the week included Mirage Resorts Inc., up 29 percent, after MGM Grand Inc. offered the acquire the company for $5.5 billion. Gateway jumped 24 percent after the company unveiled alliances with Sun Microsystems Inc. and OfficeMax Inc. aimed at boosting sales of the personal computers it makes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.4 percent last week, closing below 10,000 for the first time since April. 6. The decline contributed to reduce the price-to-earnings ratio for the index to 23 from a high of 28 in September. Microsoft Could Gain Microsoft, the biggest company in the S&P 500, fell almost 4 percent last week. The No. 1 software maker has tumbled 22 percent so far this year. Price Headley, president of BigTrends.com, a stock and options advisory firm in Lexington, Kentucky, said Microsoft could be poised to rebound. He pointed to a technical indicator showing that the stock closed below its 200-day moving average on Wednesday. When the price falls below that line it ``has historically been an excellent time to buy,' he said. For 14 of the last 17 occasions when Microsoft has dropped to its 200-day moving average, the stock has gained an average of 26.1 percent in the next four months, Headley said. That compares with an average drop of 7 percent on the three occasions it fell over the four months. Headley recommends buying call options that allow the holder to purchase the stock for 100 by July 20 on expectations the stock will move higher within the four-month time frame. StoneRidge Investment's Cook is considering adding to the Microsoft shares the firm owns. In the interim, he's been buying semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. and computer network equipment maker Extreme Networks Inc. This week, investors will be looking to February's unemployment report and changes in average hourly earnings to be released on Friday for more evidence of the size and possible timing of Federal Reserve interest rate increases this year. ``If hourly earnings growth is above the 0.3 percent expected, it may be the confirmation that Greenspan is right and inflation is ticking up,' said Michelle Clayman, chief investment officer at New Amsterdam Partners LP, which manages $1 billion. ``That could make for more bumps in the market.' Companies expected to report earnings include Dayton Hudson Corp., Litton Industries Inc.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (41512)	2/28/2000 8:14:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Forget the Dow- Nasdaq divergence. I want the US dollar- SPX divergence explained. The SPX, and normally all the major US markets tend to rise and fall with the dollar. Since the first of the year- they have diverged- The dollar has continued up while the SPX, DJI, etc. have faltered. stockcharts.com Is this a flight to cash (safety), or is it signalling something else? I find it quite odd that the dollar looks to be breaking UP while the market looks to be breaking down. Who wants to tackle this one? -g- Edit- there is a precedent in the summer of 98 market correction for this. Although the $ did not rise much, it did initially rise during the first 1.5 months of the market decline, before tanking with the market in september. It is up to 2 months now this time around.