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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (256)	2/28/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip, Can't help but think about GZ'S post about money cascading down from the liquid markets to the Naz. This is undeniably a trend over the last 60-90 days. I guess the memories of trying to get out of a position in a declining market have spooked me. At any rate,over the last 25 -30 years of market observation ( yes I started early at the age of 18 ), I remember having made the fatal error of leveraging up with paper profits and holding thru the top only to watch my gains vaporize and work me into an involuntary over-committed position ( read that as selling my retirement fund to cover a margin call ). Well, at least we've established I have come from humble beginnings. At any rate, over the week end I thought the djia,spx,naz looked weak and the russell was of question.So I decided I would cash in one of my last 2 stocks ( sbse ). It opened with a bid of 48 3/4 to 49 3/8. In the first 25 minutes 900 shares traded at 49 1/16 - ( did I mention this stock is not real liquid ?? ) So I'm watching and decide to sell 500 at 49 1/16 (since someone is buying a split on the spread) . I no more than enter the order and the bid goes to a bid of 28 1/4 to an ask of 28 7/8. All this on 900 shares - the dow is up and the naz is down 60. I'm telling you when the vacuum hits from these lofty levels and it is accompanied with a fear mentality - the vix will peg the needle at ( I'm scared to say it but 150 - 200 will not surprise me). I went back to the CBOE, they keep vix from 86 to current. Panics are great opportunities, but as humans we are so optimistic. If ever one can be on the buying side of a vix spike with a portfolio of cash - it would be nothing short of an incredible wealth defining moment. Perhaps the greatest in a life time. Don't get me wrong - I profess not to be a Guru. I just feel an undeniable glee about how far the market has come - the lows are growing ,the small caps are popping, the big cap leadership is in decline and I'm feeling wealthy (if that's not a top then my past horrors just aren't worth a flip).VBG If it swims like a duck,quacks like a duck,looks like a duck - chances are it's a duck!! I have that same gut feeling about this being a top - and there is very little liquidity now - with the market working itself towards less liquidity on a daily basis. JMHO and that's a true story about trying to take money out of the market on a technically strong stock in a very edgy illiquid market. Bob