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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (76722)	2/29/2000 10:28:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Steve, re: <they will all want to be producing the RAM that is in demand and is bringing in the profits - RDRAM.> I think you're making assumptions and ignoring the impact of the consumer on demand. Even Intel has stated the consumer will decide what DRAM is successful. I originally felt that RDRAM would be successful because of intensive marketing by the parties driving the solution, but I no longer feel that way. Though certainly not an expert in device, module or mobo design, I did review the tech doc's available for these products. My take is this is far afield from what makers are accustomed to, and perhaps capable of building. Even with stringent manufacturing controls and intensive and exotic testing procedures, I anticipate latent problems will show up over time. (For example, I am concerned about mixing and matching RIMM's as users upgrade). And these things will always carry a cost premium. JMHO's, of course.

To: Steve Lee who wrote (76722)	2/29/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Steve: The cited article is from the company (hence might be a bit optimistic?), yet even if one were to accept the commentary at face value and not question the details, it shouldn't inspire bullish confidence. Note the details. - Two more producers have passed validation tests. This is a bit different from "volume production". - All five "are expected (by whom?) to" deliver more than 10.0 million RDram "devices" by the end of the quarter. Not that I expect this optimistic forecast to be different from any of the others issued by the company, but the Sony situation will of necessity provide much of whatever gets shipped this month (and probably accounts for the use of the word "devices"). As well, even if 10.0 million were produced, there is the matter of where they will go. At best, a tiny fraction of these will end up in PCs (the top end is a small fraction of the shrinking PC pie, and RMBS is a small fraction of that small fraction). "Inventory build"? If you think not, go visit some local cloners or PC stores and then report back about the demand for RMBS. It is minuscule. - Check out the number of memory "devices" that are produced each month to put the "expected 10.0 million devices" for the quarter into perspective. Even for "fluff", this piece is clumsy. Best, Earlie