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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (41831)	3/1/2000 1:09:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Dwight, you should have taken those semi-upgrades as short signals, just like the butthead who said 1000 qcom, and i will add the templeton 1 million DOW upgrade as a SELL. all the analysts are upgrading furiously at the TOP! and downgrading at the bottom (kinda like the mdd -ggg- this butthead analysts are now putting a MEGA-SELL-SHORT signal on all semi stocks too average in over the next 3 trading sessions. i believe this will be a home run, and will satisfy those who missed out on the bhumba upside. b

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (41831)	3/1/2000 1:59:00 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

The SEMI book to bill has been a pretty reliable indicator for the stocks in the industry. I wouldn't start major short positions until the peak has been clearly defined and the down trend has been initiated. Demand for chips has been accelerating. geocities.com NOTE the 95-96 double top. By July 96 the chip sector had washed out. We may be seeing similar signs but I wouldn't move until the down trend has started. My 2 cents, FWIW Michael

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (41831)	3/1/2000 8:49:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dwight, the latest twist in the semi story is the claim that the cycle has been abandoned due to the coming proliferation of wireless and internet appliances. to that let me just say that the last time we were informed that the cyclical nature of the business didn't exist anymore (due to the big ramp - up in PC demand) was in '95, right at the time the cycle actually peaked. always be wary of foaming-at-the-mouth optimism...it is usually misplaced. imo what we're seeing in RMBS and MU is the mother of all short squeezes - nothing more. as for WS analysts, we all know what they're worth...not needed in a bull market, not wanted in a bear market. but they have become especially irresponsible in the latest stage of the mania. it is a great pity that all independent thinkers on WS have been silenced in favor of this mindless claque. regards, hb