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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Fleckenstein, the BEAR! Is he finally right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tommaso who wrote (226)3/1/2000 8:37:00 PM
From: themadsnooker  Respond to of 259
 
The problem is that either way you are gambling.

I have a friend who in 1992 decided he would keep his 401(k) account 100% invested in a treasury bond fund. Another friend kept his account 100% invested in an S&P 500 fund.

Both were gambling. One gambled that the bull market would not continue, one gambled that it would continue.

Personally, I have gambled that it would continue, and have done well. Not due to any personal merit, but because the market was hot.

How can you argue that the guy who decided, in 1992, to keep his money in a bond fund is more "sane" than me? The available evidence indicates otherwise. Couldn't a stronger argument be formulated that the guy who invested in the bonds is the "insane" one??

After all, the ultimate goal is to make money.



To: Tommaso who wrote (226)3/1/2000 11:08:00 PM
From: Colleen M  Respond to of 259
 
Tommaso, I agree with you on this issue. I may have given the wrong impression in my earlier statement about AG. I was trying to look at it in an objective manner.

At this point money in the bank might turn out to be a lot more valuable than money as measured by stock certificates. Anyone who is fortunate enough to have made a lot of "money" in stock prices would not be bad off putting a good part of it into something that cannot quickly be devalued. Inflation can eat away paper money, but at least one can see it developing, whereas stock prices can collapse within days or weeks instead of years.

I'm pretty conservative and I don't need the thrill of gambling. If I were 21 again, I would not be doing the piercings either.

Thanks, Lew