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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (41992)	3/2/2000 8:49:00 AM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

Allan: "When your local carpenter signs up with TD Waterhouse it's a powerful signal." The guys over at Waterhouse tell me they are seeing a very noticeable acceleration in the number of people calling to place orders for "symbols" in stocks for which they don't know the name!

To: AllansAlias who wrote (41992)	3/2/2000 9:01:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Allan Haggett: Nice post...welcome aboard MDA/MDD! Regards, LG

To: AllansAlias who wrote (41992)	3/2/2000 10:35:00 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 99985

Allan, re "If I hear one more person/expert tell me that oil and its instruments are going to keep rising it must be time to sell" I keep hearing the oil price is not sustainable. First the consensus on a stable price was $15. Then it was $20. Now it's $25. Okay, $30 is probably not sustainable, but look how low the XOI has fallen already. It's nutty. Meanwhile oil producers are starting to show decent earnings, and this is based on an average selling price around $20 due to hedging. The effect of higher prices will continue to filter though over the next couple of quarters at least. JMHO Fun-da-Mental

To: AllansAlias who wrote (41992)	3/2/2000 4:44:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Allan, re: crude oil, while the sentiment data from polls of futures traders show sentiment to be rather lopsidedly bullish (quite natural in a technically strong market), the consensus among the 'experts' and talking heads seems to be that the top must be in any day now. which is what we keep hearing every day ever since crude rallied above $14/bbl. they continually point to the backwardation in the futures market as proof (see, the market thinks oil will be cheaper in 2 months time they say). utter nonsense...a market in backwardation is one suffering from supply constraints...it is a very bullish sign. as the front month changes, the new nearby contract immediately takes on the characteristics of its predecessor. first it was a certainty that OPECs new-found discipline would be short-lived, now it is a certainty that it will raise the production quotas as "too high a price is not in its interest" (LOL! any WS strategist will tell you high oil prices 'don't matter in the new economy', so why should OPEC take less money for its oil?). they may well decide to raise output a tad, but probably not enough. something the media and oil companies keep a tight lid on is increasing evidence that the industry is plagued by y2k-related problems. since the beginning of the year involuntary shutdowns, explosions and all sorts of other accidents at oil facilities have increased dramatically, with no satisfactory explanation forthcoming as to why this is happening. why do you think Saudi Arabia has cut its March export quota to the US by 30% and to the EU by 40%? could it be that there are problems? i think so... btw, i'm hearing several refineries are running on manual...the engineers seem unusually tightlipped when asked about this. so even if the crude supply increases enough to induce a correction in the price, it may well be that the shortage of distillates persists. note that this is only a rumor...i have no evidence to support this claim. but the stunning increase in explosions and shutdowns is a fact. once again the reasons are a matter of speculation, as the trend actually began in mid '98. but it has accelerated dramatically since the beginning of this year. regards, hb