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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mana who wrote (13756)	3/2/2000 8:55:00 PM
From: Steve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Chris, Thanks for the reply. It's a tough sell to the investment community. What is being spun off are all the dead-end enterprise pieces. All the growth enterprise bits are being retained by Lucent. I've been talking with another Lucent employee and she says that the new company is a piece of crap. She's a long time employee from the AT&T Long Lines days and is a mid-level manager now. The day before the spinoff she says she's exercising all of her options that she can and moving everything in her 401k to mutual funds. She expects this new venture to drop like a stone because a growth rate of 5% per year isn't going to attract many new investors and current Lucent stockholders will sell off their Company X shares ASAP, at least in her opinion because who wants to own a POS (her words not mine). As to your AT&T/Lucent spinoff analogy you've got to remember that what is being spun off now is basically what was spun off from AT&T 4 years ago minus the service provider 5ESS product lines. Most everything that is of value at Lucent today was acquired after October 1996 and has been targeted at the service provider market. But Lucent, by keeping, the growth part of the enterprise business is crippling the new company out of the gate. I'm trying to get a perspective on this new venture and right now I have two viewpoints that are 180 degrees apart.

To: Mana who wrote (13756)	3/3/2000 2:13:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 21876

Steve, and Threaders, I would like those having knowledge regarding the below to respond. I just received the following information from a research firm quoting, "AT&T is going to announce an OC-192 supplier by the end of March, April at the latest. Nortel and Lucent are the favorites. Lucent used to be the favored over Nortel. By now, I think Nortel is getting to be a stronger contender. I believe current street expectations are Lucent will get the whole order, (Up to $2 billion) but I don't think so. I think Lucent will get half and Nortel will get half. This would be bad for Lucent, who is expected to get the whole thing. AT&T can no longer afford to wait, Lucent has no reference accounts and no capacity either for OC-192, giving great manufacturing risk to AT&T (Lucent's 80 channel DWDM worked fine in the lab until they manufactured it in high volume for QWEST and the filters blew and QWEST is ripping it out and giving it to CIENNA, another strong buy of mine). I don;t see how AT&T can put all their eggs, their whole future, in the Lucent basket by putting 100%of their OC-192 with LUCENT. Lucent has nor reference accounts. Nortel has 50 large reference accounts for OC-192."