Nicely said
Ok, devils advocate time!
Those kind of Rah Rah posts are encouraging, you made some very good points. I've learned through much trial and error not to get my hopes up too high though. Really, the true jury is the marketplace, and the verdict rendered so far as has been pointed out the last year by the share price, is inconclusive at best.
On point 1, you said working on a wireless strategy. I would say that is great, but in the meantime while they are "working" on it, how much of the pie are they losing to the competition that already has strategy implemented, consistent in their goals and execution.
On point 2, that would indeed be great if they are first to the market with set top. I really like how you described how the Charter subscribers will be exposed to GNET. However, do we know this as a fact, not just speculation? Honest (and admittedly naive) question. Also, it may be nice to be first, but AOL/TWX and the others will likely be the 1,000 pound gorillas, diluting the impact of this.
Point 4: Great! And 5, I agree, smart acquisitions that are well thought out only makes common sense.
The thing that kind of scared me was your last sentence, that "GNET will continue to grow market share as many other internets will continue to suffer dramatic price erosion."
Well, first of all, how do we know that GNET will continue to grow that market share? Probably, but there are really no guarantees, especially of a higher stock price as a result, if for instance the nasdaq corrects strongly, or the competition grabs all of the attention. Secondly, those other internets Im not sure which ones you mean. Many that I watched last summer are now up quadruple since then. That is not exactly erosion! This is what is unnerving, seeing the comp. up 100%, with no reaction in this stock. If those others (Yahoo perhaps you meant?) do erode though, what assurances do we have that GNET will somehow do the exact opposite? Obviously none, but it is something to think of, since if the price has not moved during the largest tech rally in history, why would the market flock to them during a broad sell off.
Now please don't go beating up on me publicly here for stating some thoughts, really, I liked what you said, very well done and if you are right, which I sure hope, all will be well. Being objective and non-biased is what I am striving for, when I no longer am and take one side as is without question, then its time to move on.
On another note, I think the worst thing that could happen in the annual meeting would be for the price to run up some prior, and then everyone will go in feeling all relaxed and giddy. Then, they will kind of forget the pressing questions they may have wanted to ask earlier, be all smiles happy to be off work and in a nice conference room surrounded by happy people, (except for Fleckenstein) get all worked up by the promise, only to come back later and surprise! the market did not care. Or worse, the strategy initiatives were delayed further. So if there are hard questions to be asked, I hope they will not be forgotten. Its very easy to be swayed by hope and promise only to find out later that there was a little fudging to keep everyone happy. I doubt that this will be the case, but its maybe something to be aware of.
Ok, enough. Please keep up the good posts. Regards! |
