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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (42116)	3/3/2000 12:48:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The IND and NYA continue to retrace their previous falling wedge formations. The COMPX has already broken above its rising wedge formation. However, both the NDX and NAZ Emini Futures have yet to break above. Both the NDX and NAZ Emini are testing the upper trend line of their respective rising wedge formations. Both are giving hints of pulling back from the trend line with my 15-minute indicators close to supporting that pullback. Of course with all TA, nothing is 100%. Critical time, will the upper trend line hold or is the NAZ off to the races again...time will tell... Regards, LG

To: James Strauss who wrote (42116)	3/3/2000 10:41:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, re >Weaker employment figures hints at the FED rates beginning to take effect... Perhaps we only get one or two more rate hikes instead of three or four... The market is sensing this... Imagine what would happen if the FED takes no action at the next meeting... : ><< The fed does look at the employment data, but that is just one indicator of potential future inflation. The fed is not "targeting" the unemployment rate, nor the # of new jobs created rate. Neither is the fed targeting the stock market, but Alan Greenspan clearly stated that the main reason the FOMC will have to keep raising rates is because of the "wealth effect" indicator; i.e. he clearly stated that although the FOMC is not targeting the stock market, nor saying where stocks should be valued; but that the simple fact that stocks have gone up is an indicator of wealth effect inflation. Unfortunately, the momo players who have thrown every yardstick out the window except to buy what's going up will force A.G. to keep incrementally moving interest rates up..and up...and up. Until the stock market stops going up. Everyone with an Adjustable Rate Mortgage is going to be continuing to take big hits on their monthly disposable income, and home buyers will not feel much like buying. Oh, and of course all those old-economy companies with debt will have to trim back their purchases from the dot-com companies. Not to worry though, Jim! Because earnings don't matter anyway. Neither do interest rates. Now say it 500 times for me: "The only thing that matters is that everyone else is just as big a fool as me."

To: James Strauss who wrote (42116)	3/4/2000 12:45:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, you cite the strength in the Nasdaq and otc BB stock markets internals (believe me, i'm not complaining about the performance of the BB stocks, as i play them extensively. this is just a general comment)as a sign that the market is healthy. strength in the most speculative sectors of the market is a sign of health? in another post you say: <<More and more people are realizing that the Nasdaq represents America's future... And... Now with heavyweights like Dell, Microsoft, Intel, etc., it has the credibility to be a market leader; not just something to call attention to a speculative frenzy at market tops... Buying the Nasdaq blue chips has been a successful strategy for those willing to break away from the old NYSE aura of invincibility...>> i would not argue that the Nasdaq represents the future, and that the heavyweights you list are indeed leaders. you are 100% right about that and i would even agree that the performance of the Nasdaq RELATIVE to the NYSE is ample proof that this statement is correct. however, how you can fail to see that the Nasdaq is in a speculative frenzy eludes me. it was in one already 2000 points ago, and it is now in an infinitely worse one. the only relation that the prices of the favored Nasdaq stocks may still have with reality is that they discount decades of fantastic growth by now. this is to say, the growth WILL be there and many of the firms will succeed (still more will probably fail), but that does not in any way justify their current stock prices. those are just a fantasy, which has been created by a combination of greed, an overabundant money supply and an increase in the velocity of this money through the vast balance sheet expansion of the non-bank financial sector. Japan's zero interest policy is also a contributing factor. but not to worry, the gains are all on paper. they are ephemeral, as todays 'investors' will no doubt have opportunity to find out at some point. it is one thing to invest in the future, but is it quite another thing to uncritically accept that no price is too high. sorry to sound like a party - pooper, but you know me by now....<g> btw, i have adopted an extremely cynical approach to choose my investment, or rather trading vehicles...as mentioned before, i trade mostly THE most speculative sector now. i found this approach to be highly successful. i'll post my criteria for choosing stocks on another occasion, should be good for a laugh... regards and have a great weekend, hb