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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (12218)	3/3/2000 9:07:00 PM
From: heavenly	Respond to of 15132

The 60% sell signal has my stomach turning. I am 12.5% behind where I would be today if I had held everything. Additionally, there have been stocks that without Brinker's bearish outlook, I would have bought. All of which have run away... I am kicking myself daily for selling LRCX, AMAT, SVGI, COHU, TER. I had a plan for this sector that included holding during 2000 and scrapped the plan with Brinker's market timing model. I am responsible for my investment choices. Although it is relevant to this BOB BRINKER thread to post how BOB BRINKER's call has influenced the portfolios of those that listen to and consider his advise. Perhaps in a month or two, the market along with technology stocks will tank and my portfolio will be worth 12.5% more than it would have been had I held. That would make me seem wise for following Brinker's advise. I do not like the feeling of hoping the market will tank. After all, I still have 40% of my portfolio in stocks. My stomach feels a little better now. Posting is therapeutic.

To: Investor2 who wrote (12218)	3/4/2000 6:54:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I2 and Steve, <<This is really starting to get to be some serious money. How long can the market keep it up????>> Think about the folks on the bear threads like Kahuna. They've been in gold and cash for years now! Somehow the Mr. Market manages to prove everyone, or at least as many people as possible wrong, especially the ones that have very "high" opinions of their own ability the "see" the future. Does tend to make you believe in some kind of higher trickster deity that rules all with a remarkable sense of humor, at times sadistic and at times perfectly just (don't ask me to explain that!).

To: Investor2 who wrote (12218)	3/4/2000 7:06:00 AM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

How long can the market keep it up???? Much longer than you may care to imagine. The markets will continue their run until the majority of those who heeded Bob's advice (and that of other bearish pundits) finally throw up their arms in frustration and jump back into the market. There is a lot of "scared money" sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a dip in the market. As the dips become slighter and slighter, the apparent risk becomes less. Acquiring debt to invest seems entirely logical. The markets take on a new character; the markets begin a parabolic ascent like nothing ever experienced before. It is baffling for those on the sidelines, and exhilarating for those participating in the rise. And which is the preferred feeling, confusion or ecstasy? The tech and biotech stocks have their analogy in the classic thought experiment: Imagine a table in the middle of a casino onto which people are constantly throwing money in exchange for "shares" in the pile. The pile is growing at a remarkable rate, and the "shares" you "purchased" early in the game have increased your net-worth many-fold. Intangibly, however. For to convert your "shares" back to money, you must stop participating in the game. Certainly that would not be in your interest as long as the pile is growing. But lately, the game has taken on a less sober character. People of little means are joining the game. Elderly people on fixed incomes. Those who have never entered a casino before, and who don't realize that money can be lost as well as won. At what point do you decide to leave the game? As long as the pile is growing, you are safe. But should you leave when the pile is shrinking, and fear dominates? What if you aren't able to get out in time? IMO, the tech and biotech stocks have become gambling vehicles of this nature. There is no calculation of valuation occurring among "investors" who would buy JDS Uniphase at a market cap of $100 Billion (and no, I'm not bitter because I sold my JDSU at half its present value).

To: Investor2 who wrote (12218)	3/4/2000 7:15:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I2, The case for hedging: USPIX is down 9% already this month but the funds I would have sold are doing nicely. march since the bear call PBHEX 8 % 63 % MNNCX 7 % 32 % RSEGX 6 % 46 % VWEGX 7 % 43 % USPIX -9 % -41 % Gtot 3 % 11 % NAZ 5 % 21 % I just have to figure out how to rebalance the hedge, which of course, is disappearing. Last year Bob said that in the event of a bear call, one could hedge their techs by shorting QQQ. In fact, a caller at the time, wanted to know what to do with his CSCO,MSFT,SUNW etc that were very long term holdings. Bob's great advice was to hedge by shorting the NAZ 100 in the event of a bear call. However, last Saturday when a caller tried to ask about adjusting his tech hedge, Bob goes off on a tangent claiming that the 6000 stock NASDAQ index is really justa sector fund and has nothing to do with his call. Oh well. Guess I'll sell a little PBHEX and put it into the fading hedge! FWIW, Dick

To: Investor2 who wrote (12218)	3/10/2000 9:28:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Here's the latest on how the sell signal is working for me. It's about the same as last week. I'm 17% behind where I would have been if I had just held everything. I didn't sell any more this week. I'm still a little shell- shocked after getting hit with that huge bull run last week. The US market made new highs again this week. As of tonight, the US market is now sitting less than 0.5% below its all time highs and 3.9% higher than it was on 1/12/00, when I was first able to act on the sell signal. The total international market, as measured by the average performance of VWIGX and MNIGX, has done better than the US market; it is up 9.6% since 1/12/00. The European market, as measured by the average performance of PRESX, VEURX, and FEURX, has also done well; the average is up 16.2%. The average is skewed by the performance of FEURX. Sell Sell Current Security Date Price Price Diff. %Diff. PBTCX 01/12/00 $65.22 $116.21 $50.99 78.2% (Ouch!!) SRFCX 01/12/00 $35.22 $47.43 $12.21 34.7% (Ouch!) MNMCX 01/12/00 $20.71 $25.22 $4.51 21.8% (Ouch) 500 Index 01/12/00 $1,435.00 $1,395.00 -$40.00 -2.8% VWIGX 01/12/00 $21.94 $24.15 $2.21 10.1% CYMI 01/12/00 $45.88 $58.00 $12.12 26.4% (Ouch) CYMI 01/31/00 $56.63 $58.00 $1.37 2.4% MOT 02/04/00 $155.00 $172.25 $17.25 11.1% MOT 02/11/00 $160.81 $172.25 $11.44 7.1% PRSCX 02/29/00 72.13 76.39 4.26 5.9% UTEK 02/29/00 16.50 17.06 0.56 3.4% Average 18.0% Less Money Market Interest 0.8% Total Opportunity Cost 17.2% Last Week's Value 17.1% 1/12/00 Price Current Price Diff. % Diff. Wilshire 5000 13426.60 13952.00 $525.40 3.9% VWIGX $21.94 $24.15 $2.21 10.1% MINGX $22.42 $24.45 $2.03 9.1% Average of VWIGX and MNIGX 9.6% VEURX $28.21 $29.49 $1.28 4.5% PRESX $23.53 $25.03 $1.50 6.4% FEURX $23.38 $32.19 $8.81 37.7% Average of VEURX, PRESX, & FEURX 16.2% It's truly been a wild and crazy market. Best wishes, I2