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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (1373)	3/4/2000 5:06:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Respond to of 1989

<<In fact, Z calls it a "lockstep" with Veritas (though I wouldn't because if it were we would have blown past my exit point some time ago.) >> Guess I should have said the moves wre "positively correlated". Got me on a technicality. -Z

To: Stitch who wrote (1373)	3/4/2000 9:01:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Hi Stitch, Are we on the cusp of an incredible renaissance in storage where margins come creeping back? I am leaning toward saying yes to your question, at least the part about renaissance in storage. Margins are trickier to predict. They are what economists call the residual. You have a bunch of large items above it in the income statement and whatever remains at the bottom is profit. Hard to predict? Absolutely! A couple percent here and there in pricing and in costs makes the difference between lousy margins and good ones. Will disk drive companies be able to take a piece of the storage profit pie or will it all go to the software, systems or retailing guys? Recent history doesn't paint a pretty picture but I'm not convinced that the recent environment for DD makers is the model for the future. So I would expect margins to "creep back", as you said, but would not be surprised if they roared back either. Or for that matter remained negative for years to come. How's that for indecisive? As always, the questions Z poses concerning the long-term value in Veritas remain the toughest for me to answer. I posted when the value of VRTS passed GM which was 10 or 15 percent ago. New economy or new mania? I think the odds favor the latter.

To: Stitch who wrote (1373)	3/4/2000 1:15:00 PM
From: Kevin Linder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

<< How long will the wind blow? Anybody concerned about a Summer correction? I am leaning to pulling the sell trigger.>> I am getting pretty close to pulling the trigger myself. Right now, I am watching the AMD/INTC race for the fastest processor because I believe that will have a lot of influence on computer sales. Are these two bringing out processors so fast that the prices of existing processors are falling faster than sales of the newer, higher profitable chips? INTC and AMD are set to announce 1 GHZ processors next week and INTC is scheduled to bring out Willamette at an expected speed of 1.4+ GHZ by mid year. As new processors come out the price of existing processors falls. Laptop processors have been limited on speeds by factors such as heat and batteries. So why would a consumer buy the latest 1 GHZ (or faster) computer with the largest (highest margin) hard drive? I think the consumer and business market might need some time to adjust to the new higher processor speeds and both Windows 2000 and Windows Millenium Edition. I still think Broadband will be a key factor in driving storage demand. Still not quite enough access to Cable modems/DSL yet in my opinion. As far as convincing the consumer that they need a computer with a 25+ Gig hard drive, I don't think things are quite there yet. That leaves two markets to grow -- enterprise storage/NAS/SAN; and the low end market. Both of which SEG seems to be market leaders. I am close to pulling the trigger -- how close yet, I don't know. I think its going to be day by day. Next week we still might go up due to the INTC/AMD announcements (JMHO). Kevin Linder