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To: Clarksterh who wrote (68559)3/5/2000 12:35:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
To all - current bull mkt finally explained : drugs ! (Prozac).


March 5, 2000

INVESTING DIARY

A Psychiatric Theory on Irrational Exuberance

It is a truism that the stock market is a pendulum swinging between fear
and greed. But what if there is no fear because investors are chock full of
Prozac or other psychoactive drugs?

Perhaps stock prices and indexes like the Nasdaq composite, up 20.8 percent
so far this year, could race to unprecedented valuations as investors' usual
reactions to things like high price-earnings multiples and rising interesting
rates are suppressed.

That is the hypothesis being floated by Randolph M. Nesse, a professor of
psychiatry at the University of Michigan, in a recent essay posted on a Web
site called Edge, ( edge.org ).

Nesse points out that prescriptions for psychoactive drugs rose to 233 million
in 1998 from 131 million in 1988, with nearly 10 million filled last year for
Prozac alone. Next, he considers the likelihood that a disproportionately high
part of the population connected to the markets -- brokers and wealthy
individuals, in particular -- are likely to be taking antidepressants.

And he says he has noted that certain of his patients who take such drugs
seem to worry too little about real dangers. "This is exactly the mind-set of
many current investors," he said.

Nesse said he did not want to belittle the positive effects that antidepressants
may be having on the economy.

"They are productive employees," he said of workers taking such drugs.

"But if investor caution is being inhibited by psychotropic drugs, bubbles
could grow larger than usual before they pop, with potentially catastrophic
economic and political consequences," he said. "If chemicals are inhibiting
normal caution in any substantial fraction of investors, we need to know
about it."

On the other hand, if a "Prozac effect" on the markets is confirmed through
further research, it might not necessarily be bad news for stocks. Only
one-third of the population that could benefit from antidepressants is
currently taking them, according to Nesse. So, presumably, the market has
room to go higher.

(Full disclosure: Nesse said he was not currently invested in the market,
having recently sold a position in a biotechnology stock, Affymetrix.)

In any case, Nesse is adamant that government-sponsored research into the
topic is necessary. But he is not sure whether it should be carried out by the
Securities and Exchange Commission or the National Institutes of Mental
Health.

-- Richard Teitelbaum

Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company



To: Clarksterh who wrote (68559)3/5/2000 2:06:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
 
>>There has never been the slightest evidence that Qualcomm was making product they couldn't sell.<<

clark, not true. qcom even spoke of an inventory issue in their conference call. inventory issues arise when you make product that you can't sell. if you could sell it then it wouldn't be inventory. if you didn't make it then it wouldn't be inventory.

they made it and couldn't sell it right away so they created a material inventory issue (material enough to mention it) at qpe (now kyocera).



To: Clarksterh who wrote (68559)3/5/2000 10:24:00 AM
From: limtex  Respond to of 152472
 
CH- Wireless palm helds

Sorry to interupt one of SBs diatribes but since I saw you posting I couldn't resist the opportunity to bring up a subject that has been of some discussion over on the SNDK thread. Firstly I have been an SNDK fan for about three years!

Secondly there is the question of the palm helds. I have a Cassiopiea 105 and it is fantastic. It is in glorious color which until the new color Palm appears was previously only available to CE based devices. The diference between color and B&W is just stunning. The battery life on the 105 is about 6 hours but as you don't use it for extended periods it last me say 2 weeks per charge since I look up phone numbers and use the calender function and read my downloaded e-mail ...sometimes.

I was goign to buy a Palm VII this week and connect wireless for $60 a month you get unlimited data downloads. Sounded good to me and I might still do it but I really don't like the Palm ooperating system as compared to my 105.

Anywaay there is a Compact Flash modem that fits neatly into the CF slot in the 105. I've bought it but never used it. I would however use a wireless CF modem and I guess it won't be long before a CF wireless modem with a QCOM 1X chip in it comes out. I don't know if anyone has seen or heard of such a product yet but I'd love to know because:-

Fistly I would use a modem like that all the time and

Secondly QCOM will sell tens of millions of them

Thirdly SanDisk will sell loads of CF to store all the data that the above two deliver.

So I am quite interested in seeing such a modem for a CE plam held.

BUT the big issue if it is going to be in color is the battery life.

Thought this subject might be an interesting aside this morning.

Best regards,

L