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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (42297)	3/5/2000 1:12:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Someone posted here a while back an interesting tidbit about GE and now I forgot what teh rule was. Ge apparently buys it's stock options on either the first or second Wednesday of each month and I was curious given GE's weakness until last week if that was it or if it is still coming. I don't recall if it was you, Les or Haim that first announced this tidbit of useful information but it could help with figuring out which chart to believe for teh DOW this week. My daily says we go down but my weekly says we could just be beginning to see a powerful move upwards. Considering that GE moves the DOW and if there is more upside, there are some real bargains there, it could be prudent to forget the over priced NASDAQ stocks and catch some cheap and the rare "value" plays in this group. Boy did DD move fast or what?!?! I may have to stop posting this stuff.<g> The day after I wrote about SLB, it moved up strong, then I mention DD and it runs. Of course I wish I could take credit but since I was also watching DOW and didn't say anything except to one person and it moved 10%, I guess some of us are all watching the same stuff. I noticed LG and others posting about the same stocks I was also so I guess the charts are just all starting to talk to us at the same time. I have a few good possible short plays lined up but am not having as good of luck at finding good longs in case this keeps going. SOme have good chart patterns but the cycles are off, the others have good cycles but the chart patterns are no good. The shorts seem to be lining up better and that scares me since I don't like being in the majority. <g> Any update on the GE thing would be appreciated. Have you noticed the schedule for the week after this one? PPI, CPI during triple witch expiration, full moon and then FOMC meeting. A straddle set up taking gains and re-establishing on the opposing whipsaws may be the best game in town. <ggg> I noticed people talking about QCOM and FA. Imagine they are counting on patented technology and trading a a few hundred years earnings yet patents expire in 7 years. Yeah, like that makes sense. <ggg> I do agree though that FA still counts eventually, you just can't time trades with it. The FA tells you where it is going, then the TA says when. JMHO My view, the money should start moving into the big boys of tech again, if it doesn't, then this is a fake out break of the wedge and it will return toot sweet. Once expiration is over, the disparity in the DOW versus the NASDAQ should resolve itself. Last I checked, all those puts were still open and they made a bundle on them. If they close them out this week, then that will change the picture a bit. Wish I had sold those 20K+ puts and been able to cover them back up a few days later for half cost. <gggggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (42297)	3/5/2000 2:29:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 99985

Hi Gersh! Here were some of my thoughts in 1997 on the Millennium Crash Thread that have borne fruit and which are even more applicable today: To: Joseph G. who wrote (862) From: Rarebird Friday, Sep 19, 1997 12:28 PM ET Reply #866 of 4972 Joseph, the market has always been ( till now ) a discounting mechanism. But we are in a so-called "new era" now or mania where speculation rules and hardly anything gets discounted except making a profit. The public, which is in mostly over its head, has been drugged by the media and mutual fund industry into thinking that stocks go up over the long term, in spite of short term setbacks, or crashes. Illusions, like these are only broken when the handwritting is completely on the wall and it is clear as noonday light for all to see. In other words, I think the market has temporarily suspended its discounting mechanism, which is common when it enters its last great blow off stage in a bull market. To: Mohan who wrote (157) From: Rarebird Wednesday, Aug 13, 1997 11:21 PM ET Reply #160 of 4972 ... The fact is that the baby boom generation is flush with cash and they are saving for retirement and their not ready to pull their money out yet. Don't underestimate them: They have done better than 90% of all the so-called professionals in the financial industry. The financial crowd is untruth to them ( including chairman Greenspan)! I don't think you know what your dealing with here and how committed they are. You know what they did to the real estate market here in the 80's. I'm telling you their not finished with the stock market yet. You know the saying: You aint seen nothing yet! Yes, what you say does make sense from an old fashioned standpoint. <Some day ... this whole fluff thing is gonna do the "burn baby burn" dance > Some day we die too. Do you think about that every day? I have a lot of respect for History and for movements that go beyond historical precedent, like the Nasdaq Comp. today. I'm not sure if I can totally make sense of or even need to fully understand what is going on here. All I know is that it looks like it is headed to 10,000 in a year. There will be pullbacks and corrections along the way. The Baby Boomers still run this market.