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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3535)	3/7/2000 8:18:00 PM
From: SteveC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

Thanks as always. What's your opinion of the adoption of 300mm technology? It appears that it is now happening sooner than later and will SFAM be able to capitalize on this?

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3535)	3/13/2000 3:10:00 PM
From: Mr. Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

<<I did write covered calls (Apr 30) against about half of my shares today, to reflect my assessment that the stock is closer to fair value than it used to be and to buy myself about 10% downside protection. If the stock does get called away at $30 then I'll have a 15% gain on the part that's covered (119% annualized gain), and I'll still participate in the upside with the ~half of my shares that aren't covered. I'm including these details of my position only to educate those who are interested in how covered call positions work--not to suggest a particular position to anyone. Basically, after being very bullish, I'm now moderately bullish, and this is one way to play such a point of view. (If you view SFAM as a likely takeover target at a modest premium, then this is not the right strategy for you.)>> As an update for those who are interested in this covered call strategy, I bought back the calls this morning when the stock dropped at the open. The downside protection had shrunk to only about 5%, and I still had the cap on the upside. There is good chance (better than 50-50, I'd say) that SFAM will break-even this quarter, despite the unanimity of the analysts' looking for losses of 5 to 13 cents per share. In such an environment, I don't want to cap my upside at $30 anymore--especially when that upside cap is only getting me 5% downside protection. Looking at the covered call position, I entered it when the stock was about $29 and exited with the stock about $26.5. I made about $1.5 per covered share on the option and lost about $2.5 per covered share on the stock, for a net loss of about $1 per share instead of the $2.5 per share that I would have lost had I left the shares uncovered. For that downside protection, I had to cap my gain while the position was in place, a gamble that paid off in this case. FYI, Mr. Sam

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3535)	9/8/2000 9:31:05 AM
From: Mr. Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

I didn't listen to the conference call and haven't keep up with SpeedFam as much recently as I used to since I sold a bit part of my long-term position in May ($13.5). I do still hold 500 shares from 1996, but I've been neglecting it, I guess. My reaction to their current predicament is the following: 1. They obviously have some competitive issues. AMAT has proven to be a tougher competitor than they have have ever had to deal with, and SFAM's rate of innovation in the wake of their merger was not sufficient to respond to that threat. Whether this is a long-term problem or only a short-term problem depends almost exclusively on how well they can continue to improve their product. I haven't looked at their latest tool in any detail and I'm not sure what "time-consuming modifications" were required, so I can't comment with any more authority than you regarding how likely they are to dig out of this. Regarding the debate about Lam's installed base, AMD had a press release regarding its purchase of some Lam polishers. AMD was the old SpeedFam's biggest customer. I hear that Intel (the old IPEC's biggest customer) does not use Lam. Anyway, AMAT's the biggest competition in this space and is beating both Lam and SFAM, so the argument's a bit irrelevant. 2. With $100M in cash, this company won't go out of business or have to take drastic financial steps any time soon. They should have a year or so to get this worked out before things are really dire. Of course, shareholders hope that it is only "timing" and "accounting-rule arcana" driving this, but as I've already said, there are fundamental problems, as well. Luckily, there is some time to get them fixed. 3. Historically, $9-$11 has been a good place to buy this stock. With $3.38 in cash, downside risk is limited somewhat from current levels (~$10). 4. My conclusion is that it's not quite as bad as the initial reaction might suggest, so I bought 3000 shares in the after-hours session last night at $10.125. If the stock bounces significantly today (to say, $14) I'd probably sell for a quick buck, but I don't expect that to happen and I'll be happy to hold if price stays low for a while. Profitable investing, Mr. Sam

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3535)	8/12/2002 4:43:24 PM
From: Mr. Sam	Respond to of 3736

Congratulations to those who have held on to SpeedFam-IPEC through this long and painful downturn. My greetings, particularly to SemiBull, with whom I used to discuss SFAM at great length. Many of us expected a NVLS buyout for several years, as I noted most recently in #3535 in March of 2000, near the peak of the Nasdaq, and in numerous postings before that. The downturn and AMAT's dominance pushed it out significantly, but it is interesting to see it finally happen. I haven't held the stock or options since 2000, but as I look back at the 18 stock positions and 16 options positions I had on SFAM over the years, I remember fondly a stock I enjoyed researching and that I traded for a $61K profit, an experience I haven't had since those crazy years of '99 and '00. Best of luck to you all! Mr. Sam