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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (77144)	3/7/2000 5:30:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Congratulations on your RMBS profits thus far. As you count them, don't confuse your excellent call on the short-term movement of the stock price with your yet unproven fundamental predictions. -mb PS semibiznews.com; "..present Direct Rambus DRAM architecture--although well suited for many applications--has high latency.." "Direct Rambus has a major advantage in "granularity" concerns of memory expansion... will spur Direct RDRAM use in..consoles..[and]..low-cost..appliances." "low-cost portable systems could use embedded SDRAM memory on logic chips to avoid the granularity issue as well as get high performance and low cost."

To: Steve Lee who wrote (77144)	3/7/2000 5:40:00 PM
From: BSGrinder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

You asked for it: You don't know what you're talking about when it comes to short squeezes.

To: Steve Lee who wrote (77144)	3/7/2000 6:07:00 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Steve, re: <Give me a break! Of the world's 7 major DRAM producers, 5 are in full production, Micron will be within a few weeks and Hitachi are in a legal dispute with Rambus. With all that production, you still have to pay a fortune to get your hands on the stuff because demand is so high.> According to rambus: Rambus said that two big memory chip manufacturers, Korea's Hyundai Corp. and Siemens AG spinoff Infineon Technologies (NYSE:IFO - news), soon to be floated on the U.S. market, will begin volume production of its chips after completing component and system level validation tests. Rambus said these companies will join Samsung Electronics Co Ltd , NEC Corp. and Toshiba Corp. , who are all beginning volume production of Rambus memory products. Rambus said these five manufacturers are expected to deliver more than ten million RDRAM (Rambus Dynamic Random Access Memory) devices by the end of this quarter. What is your definition of "full production"? I've seen estimates the PC industry consumes 500 million DRAM's per quarter. If we ignore all DRAM's other than in DIMM's/SIMM's there are at least 360 million DRAM's per quarter. According to my calculations that gives Rambus less than 3% of units in the PC market for this quarter. I think Earlie is right on when he states that Rambus will find it's place in the high end PC's W/S's. I am interested in the Sony PlayStation 2. We know it uses 64MB of RDRAM. Do you have any knowledge of the price of these devices and/or the fee's Rambus collects for them? How many consoles does Sony expect to ship this year? TIA, Gene

To: Steve Lee who wrote (77144)	3/7/2000 7:33:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Steve: I note that you feel that I have been negative. If your reference is with respect to my views on RMBS, I agree. If your reference is with respect to the overall market, again, I agree. PEs in La La Land beget such reactions from old pros who have seen bears before. With respect to "vivid imagination", an examination of assertions made by each of us may well prove illuminating on that topic. Before you get too critical of the figures I cite, a bit of homework on your part might be appropriate. Also, you might wish to suggest which figures you disagree with. They are all from extremely credible sources (in fact sources that usually have to come back every year and revise their figures DOWNWARD such as Dataquest). Have you checked out corporate sales lately? I have and they are dismal. A perusal of recently posted revenues and/or results of ANY of the resellers provides a window on the emerging new corporate PC sales reality. Read their "warnings" if you think things might get better. Don't like my reference to corporate sales having been approximately 2/3rds of total PC sales? Well, don't worry, as that figure will certainly change this year, what with corporate sales having fallen off the graph. It is a fact, however, that in the past, this has been an industry-wide perception backed by many reports. We don't have sales results from Intel for the first quarter yet, so your comment on that topic ("first time in fifteen years, first quarter will be better than the fourth quarter,etc.")appears to be based on a bit of "vivid imagination",....either yours or Intel's. Last quarter, Intel's operational results stunk. For many quarters, there has been minimal operational growth as well. Not to hurt your feelings, but it has only been in the last two or three years where first quarter results have NOT exceeded the preceding quarter's results. I know this, because I wrote a humorous report on the emergence of "seasonality" as the "excuse du jour" for explaining away the ugly first quarter results that followed massive "channel stuffing" in each of the past three Christmas selling seasons.. On what do you base the comment that "demand for Intel processors is exceptionally strong"? If this were true, then how is it that AMD is able to ship so many micros? And why has Intel cut prices (three times since Christmas) so strenuously? And why is it that Intel processors rated at anything over 700 Mhz are "MIA"? Intel's contrived press releases ("supply is tight") try to suggest that demand is the problem, but this is a bunch of horse feathers. The problem is that Intel simply cannot supply high end micros that can compete directly with the Athlon. And before you suggest that I might be wrong, go visit a few PC stores. You will see for yourself just what is going on. Incidentally, Intel has gone out of its way to get box builders to employ lower level micros (under 600 Mhz). I wonder why. Your comments about "Coppermine production being in full swing" may or may not be accurate today, but it certainly wasn't accurate a few weeks ago. As well, given the interminable delays, even if they have sorted out the problems with CU yields (which is not the case), it would still represent an embarrassment. I note that Intel has at least been apologetic about the delays in their correspondence with the field. The statement about Intel's bottom end non-use of RMBS was taken directly from their representative's statements at their road map conference. Call the company and check it out before suggesting that it isn't accurate. Assertions by you that it is "just not true" in the face of a public utterance by a company official are silly. I don't know or care what Niles says, as I consider him to be a pimp, but I do know that in a recent interview, AMD provided the guidance I cited. Not that it matters, as we will soon enough be able to see who has been producing what during Q1. Your assertion that RMBS is in high demand is pure dreaming in technicolour. Again, go find ANY local box builder who has shipped ANY PCs with RMBS aboard. I check weekly and there is NO demand. This statement is a pure unadulterated joke. I've read RMBS financials, and I've also read their 10-Qs. Have you? The profits are minuscule, given the share price. Don't be taken in by the hype. RMBS to this point in time is all talk and very little sales action. Best, Earlie