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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (77298)	3/8/2000 6:34:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, The Yen went from 147/Dollar to 104/Dollar when its growth prospects changed dramatically. Think that the unwinding of the carry trades had anything to do with this change in fundamentals? The unwinding of the carry trade was the vehicle and not the driver. It's a folly to focus on the former IMHO. Growth matters, however you cut it. -BGR.

To: Mike M2 who wrote (77298)	3/8/2000 7:46:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR, nowhere in my note did I suggest that growth is not an issue but i guess it depends if you are refering to chained weight GDP growth or nominal growth. I would say the the carry trade has been a factor - <note the use of "a" meaning one of a multitude not " the" as in the only definitive factor" > in that in reinforces and exaggerates the underlying trend. If you look behind the " strong" GDP report you would see that increased gov't spending and higher inventories accounted for over 40% of this growth - it is an election year after all. Consumer spending fueled by credit excesses and the wealth effect of Greenspan's bubble is the story behind this new era. The experiences with socialism are limited to the reign of Comrade Clinton -vbg- Mike ho ho ho