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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (12352)3/9/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
Justa - Components of the DJ 20 bond average -
averages.dowjones.com click on bond averages in the top line.

YHOO symbol - ^DJB

I'll see if I can get permission to post some charts & info.

P&F is essentially Dow Theory with numbers (points) and symbols (figures) used to plot the prices so supply and demand can be observed. It's not the holy grail and is an art not a science but can be very helpful in determining which way to lean!

My experience with the DJBB P&F chart is that it tends to lead FED decisions. If it is on a buy signal, the Fed either cuts short term rates or keeps them the same. If it is on a sell signal, the FED either raises short term rates or maintains them the same. Again, nothing is exact.

This indicator caught my attention in early 1997 when it gave a sell after a series of rate lowerings. Sure enough, the FED raised rates in the spring. Shortly after that, the DJBB gave a buy signal and all rate changes were down from there. In Feb 1999, it gave a sell signal and the rate hikes started! So you can imagine the excitement last month when it gave a buy signal. Of course this week's sell signal means puts the indicator back on a sell.

FWIW Dick