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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (10408)	3/14/2000 1:13:00 AM
From: fuzzymath	Respond to of 18928

Hi Tom. Yes, I am getting extremely high risk ratings with my measures too. I have a "strength of trend" indicator that keeps rising. It's current value has been exceeded only once in the past 10 years. Couple that with high volatility, and you've got an explosion waiting to happen. Of course, the biggest possible explosion would have to be implosion (i.e., a crash). But my long-term model still has one last indicator holding off against a full-blown bearish rating. The next few days will be interesting... Of course, maybe things will just calm down. The volatility and high near-term risk could just melt away. Why would that happen? Who knows? The market is a very strange, very moody beast. My models don't know how to predict such things... What do you think about crude oil? It can't be a sudden cornering of the market by OPEC, right? It must be increased global demand, from China's fast growing economy, the rest of Asia's recovery, etc. Which implies that we won't see lower prices any time soon. I'm on the sidelines after Monday's dip. Friday's was bearable given the power of the preceding run-up. But two significantly down days in a row makes my short term models say "Watch Out!". Kevin