To: H James Morris who wrote (95926 ) 3/10/2000 10:37:00 AM From: Bearded One Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 164684
Recently, I was fortunate enough to attend a small informal discussion on the market. I can't give details about who attended, but to demonstrate their status, I'll let you know that everyone there but me had met Alan Greenspan. Here's some points made at the discussion: 1) If Greenspan raises rates, he hurts the healthy companies as well as the unhealthy techie ones. The non-hitech companies are already in a bear market. 2) There are some companies selling at half their cash-flow. There's some good values out there. 3) Bubbles always end badly. The wealth all goes away, and the higher it gets, the more goes away. There was some disagreement on this point-- one person said that the belief that bubbles always end is just moralizing. Instead, it may just reduce to mini-scam after mini-scam as stocks crash one by one, while insiders pilfer money from the populace. 4) No guarantees as to when it will end. This group had access to more information than most everyone on this board put together, but they have no idea if it will end tomorrow or five years from now, or ever. 5) The economy of the United States is changing as more and more time is spent investing rather than earning a living for real. 6) History will have a very harsh view of the executives at Goldman, Merrill, etc.. 7) The US government should probably not take any pro-active measures to burst the bubble. This group didn't trust Washington to not politicize the whole thing. The example of Japan, where the bubble was burst by the government, was also raised. Japan is still having problems ten years later. There was some disagreement on government involvement, especially since the longer the bubble lasts, the more the little people will be hurt. 8) Greenspan is a very good man in a very bad position. Anyway, take it for what it's worth.