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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (77498)	3/10/2000 7:48:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Didn't you have some sort of prediction... made late last year.... that forecasted a huge crash/correction in the market(s) in the first part of this year? (partially due to Y2K)...Update to the forecast? Rest of year??....

To: Earlie who wrote (77498)	3/10/2000 8:09:00 AM
From: shrinks	Respond to of 132070

Earlie, This news will be spun to support the bull's case for Micron I remember all the flack last spring that arose on the MU and this thread about quality problems that Micron was having and then Micron came out and denied it. It's amazing that companies are allowed to lie to the public. NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - Dell Computer Corp. (NasdaqNM:DELL - news) said it may be forced to replace defective memory chips in up to 400,000 notebook personal computers sold last year, the Wall Street Journal said Friday. Although Dell declined to identify the chip maker, Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE:MU - news) confirmed it was the manufacturer, the Journal said. Micron said it plans to provide replacement for the 32-megabyte and 64-megabyte parts at an yet-to-be determined cost, the Journal said. The PCs with the defective chips, which were installed in Dell's Latitude and Inspiron notebooks, were manufactured from February through November last year, the Journal said. The computers are unable to resume work after being put into a low-power or sleep mode, which forces customers to turn off the machines and restart them, the Journal said. The trouble arises from the exchange between the chip and a type of hardware-control software, called BIOS, that some Dell models use, Micron told the Journal. Dell began using the BIOS during the middle part of 1999 and made it available to earlier buyers through its Web.

To: Earlie who wrote (77498)	3/10/2000 8:48:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, when you find the time, i'd be very interested in which cos survival you see potentially threatened in a recession. no need to include i-nut trash...<g> regards, hb

To: Earlie who wrote (77498)	3/10/2000 9:30:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie: Market Outlook. from ETrade: Food for thought : TA -------------------------- etrade.com ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Market Outlook ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ When Santayana uttered his famous dictum about failingÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ to heed the lessons of history, we doubt he had theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ financial markets uppermost in mind. Yet never haveÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ we come across an area of human endeavor where theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ past is re-enacted so regularly and with such exactitudeÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ as in the financial and commodity trading markets.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing overÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ and over again and expecting different results, then weÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ market participants must qualify, every couple ofÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ generations or so, as certifiable. It is within this context,ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ then, that we sat straight up upon hearing Presidentÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Clinton open his State of the Union address.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Hogging the credit for our record economic expansion,ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the president messianically asserted that "truly, we areÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ in a "new economy". We thought for a brief, oddÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ moment that we might be listening to a 1929 recordingÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ of President Coolidge. Hadn't he been fond of takingÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ credit for the then record economic expansion, all theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ while linking it to his favorite economic theme - theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ "new economy"? Indeed, he had.And "new economy"ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ was used also. Yes, those exact words.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ In 1929 an awe-inspiring array of new economyÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ industries were held up for investor inspection. Also,ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ widespread application of what were then cutting-edgeÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ communications technologies, such as the telephone andÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the telegraphic "ticker", fostered the first wave of whatÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ was to become an ongoing democratization of finance.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ During this period the "wire-house" retail brokerageÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ firms found their genesis. ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The new economy stocks of the time had much inÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ common with the new economy stocks of our time. Fewÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ had profits, which meant, of course, that they all had aÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ story. RCA, or 'Radio' as it was called, was the biggie.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ There have been only three auto companies for so longÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ that few remember any of the 400 or so automobileÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ brands of the 1920s. All were considered very chic andÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ ultra high-tech on Wall Street. Then there were theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ airline companies that traded for hundreds of dollars aÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ share, never mind that few had ever booked a singleÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ passenger let alone flown an airplane.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ The period that is associated most in the popularÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ mythology with booming stocks, '28 and '29, was in factÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ anything but a booming period for the market. Strip outÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the new economy stocks of the time and the market wasÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ in fact sharply bearish. All during February we of theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ punditocracy made much about the divergence of theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ two major stock indexes, while another, ongoingÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ divergence got much less comment.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Strip out tech and telecommunications, the newÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ economy stocks of our day, and the great bull marketÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ dissapears - poof! Laszlo Birinyi Jr. calculates that justÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 20 stocks accounted for 93% of last year's 21% rise inÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the S&P. That's almost a mirror reflection of the '28/'29ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ market.ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ It's times like this that it pays to remember how most ofÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ the great investors got rich. Most, everyone from Baronÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Rothschild to John Templeton, were contrarians. Theyÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ made their fortunes by buying when everyone wasÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ selling and selling when everyone was buying. As theÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ great Baron said, exhibiting his usual sang-froid asÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ revolution rocked 1840s Europe: "I buy when there isÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ blood in the streets". - Ted Jacksonÿ ------------ you said To: heinz blasnik who wrote (77465) From: Earlie Friday, Mar 10, 2000 7:26 AM ET Reply # of 77498 Heinz: Man, do we think the same way. I'm not touching any of what I perceive to be properly valued stocks for exactly the reasons you have enumerated. The staggering levels of debt at the consumer level guarantee a lengthy (years long) buying holiday while the massive build up of corporate debt (to buy back their own fluffed up stock) guarantees savaged profits even if rates don't fly (and they have to fly). There will be time enough to buy the survivors on the back side of this evolving bear market and I suspect there will be many surprises with respect to the companies that don't survive. Best, Earlie