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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (34543)	3/10/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: Jim B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

good grief.. up to 196 .. but down to 188.. now back to 191.. weeeeeee what a ride.. as long as the train keeps moving upwards... i guess i should enjoy the loop-d-loops along the way however, i usually get nautious riding roller coasters jim

To: Gottfried who wrote (34543)	3/10/2000 3:07:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 70976

You're welcome, Gottfried! I was also interested to hear that "pretty much everybody agrees" (whatever that means) that the semiconductor industry will cool off a tad this summer. And of course, many also predict that equipment companies will pause as well. Naturally, my questions are the same as many on here: Does that mean reduced growth rates? No growth for a short while? Or maybe several months? I personally worry when a "pause" turns into a loss of momentum, but I don't see that happening in this instance. (My opinion; your mileage may vary!) And what with the investor community do in response? That's the Real Question! <g> I think the INFRASTRUCTURE position that volatility will increase is perhaps the only "prediction" that can be made with some assurance. That's better for the Technical Analysis style traders in the short term, I think; lots of value swings to play against. I'm currently in the buy-and-hold mode, though, and I plan to be so busy this summer that I can't be tempted to change. Of course, if it were all predictable there'd be no fun, and hardly any profits.... Mitch (Still trying to figure it all out) PS Had a related thought: There is some real risk that the "flat spot" for equipment orders could last until next (fiscal) year, once it gets going. Many of the mainstream IC makers have spent all their capital for this year. Lots to ship from that for the coming months, which could lead to an inversion of the book-to-bill (less than 1) in spite of record shipments! We'll see.... M

To: Gottfried who wrote (34543)	3/16/2000 12:05:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Following are the DW Bull Percentages for the week. Note, with the exception of the high/lows all the leading indicators and the NYSE, and OTC are lower; more sectors are below the 50 percentile; that there are no sectors in the overbought area (above 70 percentile) since the Semi's sector has broken down from 88.2% last week to 60.2% this week; biogenetics broke down from 75% (overbought) to 25% (oversold); and telecommunication from 71.6% to 59.6%. Remember, that the Biogenetic and Semiconductor stock sectors and stocks are the two most violatile sectors according to Tom Dorsey. This week just shows how violatile. Also, with AMAT dropping from a $98 (post split) DW high this month to a DW $85 low yesterday we may see new lows in the SEMI's and AMAT, especially since the split has now occurred. If Lester E's prediction is correct then the SEMI's may have a signifant correction. I am looking for AMAT to drop 50% off its highs. If so, I will buy more AMAT at $50 are below. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site, IBD and SEMI sites. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 2/15/00 2/22/00 2/29/00 3/7/00 3/14/00 10week 44.43 10week 37.02 10week 35.84 10week 33.09 10week 30.82 LEADING INDICATOR #1 30week 31.74 30week 28.69 30week 29.23 30week 28.79 30week 29.65 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpaero 34.9 bpaero 32.3 bpaero 37.7 bpaero 37.7 bpaero 47.5 bpasia 58.8 bpasia 49 bpasia 51 bpasia 54.9 bpasia 52.9 bpauto 33.3 bpauto 31.2 bpauto 33.3 bpauto 32.3 bpauto 31.5 bpbank 18.3 bpbank 18.1 bpbank 16.6 bpbank 13.6 bpbank 9.8 bpbiom 75.9 bpbiom 84.5 bpbiom 86.2 bpbiom 75 bpbiom 25 bpbuil 28.1 bpbuil 30.2 bpbuil 29.7 bpbuil 29.7 bpbuil 27.1 bpbusi 46.6 bpbusi 46.5 bpbusi 46.3 bpbusi 48.4 bpbusi 49.1 bpchem 34.4 bpchem 33.3 bpchem 31.3 bpchem 31.3 bpchem 29.2 bpcomp 66.1 bpcomp 62.2 bpcomp 63.6 bpcomp 64.7 bpcomp 56.9 bpdrug 64 bpdrug 69.3 bpdrug 63.4 bpdrug 65.2 bpdrug 43.2 bpelec 60.9 bpelec 61.3 bpelec 38.2 bpelec 66.9 bpelec 59.3 bpeuro 57.1 bpeuro 57.1 bpeuro 57.1 bpeuro 62.9 bpeuro 58.3 bpeuti 28.4 bpeuti 28.4 bpeuti 37.9 bpeuti 27 bpeuti 27 bpfina 35.4 bpfina 29.2 bpfina 28.1 bpfina 32.3 bpfina 30.2 bpfood 36.7 bpfood 33.6 bpfood 34.2 bpfood 34.2 bpfood 32.2 bpfore 30.6 bpfore 30.6 bpfore 30.6 bpfore 32.7 bpfore 29.2 bpgame 61 bpgame 48.8 bpgame 48.8 bpgame 45 bpgame 43.9 bpguti 45.6 bpguti 43.1 bpguti 38 bpguti 38.6 bpguti 38.6 bpheal 60.7 bpheal 64 bpheal 61.8 bpheal 62.5 bpheal 53.8 bphous 39.4 bphous 38.6 bphous 37.4 bphous 42 bphous 37.2 bpinet 52.44 bpinet 43.07 bpinet 48.35 bpinet 53.96 bpinet 50.14 bpinsu 23.8 bpinsu 23.8 bpinsu 20 bpinsu 19.9 bpinsu 19.3 bplati 60.8 bplati 63.5 bplati 59.6 bplati 63.5 bplati 57.1 bpleis 44.2 bpleis 39.8 bpleis 39.2 bpleis 38.5 bpleis 38.5 bpmach 37.9 bpmach 38.9 bpmach 33.7 bpmach 36.8 bpmach 37.91 bpmedi 44.8 bpmedi 35.4 bpmedi 33.7 bpmedi 32.3 bpmedi 35.5 bpmeta 37.5 bpmeta 38.9 bpmeta 29.2 bpmeta 33.3 bpmeta 29.3 bpnyse 34.1 bpnyse 32.4 bpnyse 31.4 bpnyse 33.5 bpnyse 32.7 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpoil 47 bpoil 48.1 bpoil 45.1 bpoil 56.4 bpoil 56.4 bpoils 52.5 bpoils 52.5 bpoils 55 bpoils 65 bpoils 63.8 bpopti 43.61 bpopti 40.78 bpopti 43.14 bpopti 45.34 bpopti 35.09 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpotc 50.9 bpotc 50.1 bpotc 54 bpotc 55 bpotc 44.1 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpprec 30.2 bpprec 30.2 bpprec 27.9 bpprec 27.9 bpprec 27.9 bpprot 48.6 bpprot 52.9 bpprot 61.8 bpprot 52.9 bpprot 55.9 bpreal 31.5 bpreal 31 bpreal 29.1 bpreal 28.2 bpreal 27.2 bprest 30.8 bprest 32.1 bprest 28.2 bprest 31.2 bprest 33.8 bpreta 35.4 bpreta 30 bpreta 28.6 bpreta 32.1 bpreta 34.1 bpsavi 15.6 bpsavi 19.3 bpsavi 17.2 bpsavi 17.4 bpsavi 16.7 bpsemi 74.2 bpsemi 69.9 bpsemi 77.4 bpsemi 88.2 bpsemi 60.2 bpsoft 65.4 bpsoft 59.6 bpsoft 63.1 bpsoft 68.2 bpsoft 65.8 bpstee 36.6 bpstee 36.6 bpstee 29.3 bpstee 27.5 bpstee 25 bptele 59.9 bptele 59.5 bptele 68.5 bptele 71.6 bptele 59.6 bptext 28.6 bptext 28.6 bptext 28.6 bptext 30.1 bptext 32.9 bptran 27.4 bptran 30.1 bptran 27.7 bptran 26.8 bptran 25 bpwall 40 bpwall 32 bpwall 38 bpwall 50 bpwall 56.9 bpwast 51.9 bpwast 53.7 bpwast 53.7 bpwast 53.79 bpwast 55.6 HiLo 32.77 HiLo 25.76 HiLo 20.29 HiLo 29.24 HiLo 30.46 LEADING INDICATOR #3 NUMERICAL ORDER BELOW Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 2/15/00 2/22/00 2/22/00 3/7/00 3/14/00 bpbiom 75.9 bpbiom 84.5 bpbiom 86.2 bpsemi 88.2 bpsoft 65.8 bpsemi 74.2 bpsemi 69.9 bpsemi 77.4 bpbiom 75 bpoils 63.8 bpcomp 66.1 bpdrug 69.3 bptele 68.5 bptele 71.6 bpsemi 60.2 bpsoft 65.4 bpheal 64 bpcomp 63.6 bpsoft 68.2 bptele 59.6 bpdrug 64 bplati 63.5 bpdrug 63.4 bpelec 66.9 bpelec 59.3 bpgame 61 bpcomp 62.2 bpsoft 63.1 bpdrug 65.2 bpeuro 58.3 bpelec 60.9 bpelec 61.3 bpprot 61.8 bpoils 65 bplati 57.1 bplati 60.8 bpsoft 59.6 bpheal 61.8 bpcomp 64.7 bpwall 56.9 bpheal 60.7 bptele 59.5 bplati 59.6 bplati 63.5 bpcomp 56.9 bptele 59.9 bpeuro 57.1 bpeuro 57.1 bpeuro 62.9 bpoil 56.4 bpasia 58.8 bpwast 53.7 bpoils 55 bpheal 62.5 bpprot 55.9 bpeuro 57.1 bpprot 52.9 bpotc 54 bpoil 56.4 bpwast 55.6 bpoils 52.5 bpoils 52.5 bpwast 53.7 bpotc 55 bpheal 53.8 bpinet 52.44 bpotc 50.1 bpasia 51 bpasia 54.9 bpasia 52.9 bpwast 51.9 bpasia 49 bpgame 48.8 bpinet 53.96 bpinet 50.14 bpotc 50.9 bpgame 48.8 bpinet 48.35 bpwast 53.79 bpbusi 49.1 bpprot 48.6 bpoil 48.1 bpbusi 46.3 bpprot 52.9 bpaero 47.5 bpoil 47 bpbusi 46.5 bpoil 45.1 bpwall 50 bpotc 44.1 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpbusi 46.6 bpguti 43.1 bpopti 43.14 bpbusi 48.4 bpgame 43.9 bpguti 45.6 bpinet 43.07 bpleis 39.2 bpopti 45.34 bpdrug 43.2 bpmedi 44.8 bpopti 40.78 bpelec 38.2 bpgame 45 bpguti 38.6 10week 44.43 bpleis 39.8 bpwall 38 bphous 42 bpleis 38.5 bpleis 44.2 bpmeta 38.9 bpguti 38 bpguti 38.6 bpmach 37.91 bpopti 43.61 bpmach 38.9 bpeuti 37.9 bpleis 38.5 bphous 37.2 bpwall 40 bphous 38.6 bpaero 37.7 bpaero 37.7 bpmedi 35.5 bphous 39.4 10week 37.02 bphous 37.4 bpmach 36.8 bpopti 35.09 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpmach 37.9 bpstee 36.6 10week 35.84 bpfood 34.2 bpreta 34.1 bpmeta 37.5 bpmedi 35.4 bpfood 34.2 bpnyse 33.5 bprest 33.8 bpfood 36.7 bpfood 33.6 bpmedi 33.7 bpmeta 33.3 bptext 32.9 bpstee 36.6 bpchem 33.3 bpmach 33.7 10week 33.09 bpnyse 32.7 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpreta 35.4 bpnyse 32.4 bpauto 33.3 bpfore 32.7 bpfood 32.2 bpfina 35.4 bpaero 32.3 bpnyse 31.4 bpmedi 32.3 bpauto 31.5 bpaero 34.9 bprest 32.1 bpchem 31.3 bpfina 32.3 10week 30.82 LEADING INDICATOR #1 bpchem 34.4 bpwall 32 bpfore 30.6 bpauto 32.3 HiLo 30.46 LEADING INDICATOR #3 bpnyse 34.1 bpauto 31.2 bpbuil 29.7 bpreta 32.1 bpfina 30.2 bpauto 33.3 bpreal 31 bpstee 29.3 bpchem 31.3 30week 29.65 LEADING INDICATOR #4 HiLo 32.77 bpfore 30.6 30week 29.23 bprest 31.2 bpmeta 29.3 30week 31.74 bpprec 30.2 bpmeta 29.2 bptext 30.1 bpfore 29.2 bpreal 31.5 bpbuil 30.2 bpreal 29.1 bpbuil 29.7 bpchem 29.2 bprest 30.8 bptran 30.1 bptext 28.6 HiLo 29.24 bpprec 27.9 bpfore 30.6 bpreta 30 bpreta 28.6 30week 28.79 bpreal 27.2 bpprec 30.2 bpfina 29.2 bprest 28.2 bpreal 28.2 bpbuil 27.1 bptext 28.6 30week 28.69 bpfina 28.1 bpprec 27.9 bpeuti 27 bpeuti 28.4 bptext 28.6 bpprec 27.9 bpstee 27.5 bptran 25 bpbuil 28.1 bpeuti 28.4 bptran 27.7 bpeuti 27 bpstee 25 bptran 27.4 HiLo 25.76 HiLo 20.29 bptran 26.8 bpbiom 25 bpinsu 23.8 bpinsu 23.8 bpinsu 20 bpinsu 19.9 bpinsu 19.3 bpbank 18.3 bpsavi 19.3 bpsavi 17.2 bpsavi 17.4 bpsavi 16.7 bpsavi 15.6 bpbank 18.1 bpbank 16.6 bpbank 13.6 bpbank 9.8