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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (7221)	3/11/2000 2:28:00 AM
From: The Duke of URL©	Respond to of 18137

from cbsmarketwatch 20:46 SEC WON'T EXTEND STOCK DECIMAL REPORTING DEADLINE

To: Dave who wrote (7221)	3/11/2000 11:09:00 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18137

Dave, Well, now you've made me do it too.... A person could make a fortune by simply buying the QQQ's every time they make an intra-day dip - check out the charts for yourself. Absolutely anybody can look at a chart now and see what might have been, if only they had acted earlier today, or yesterday, or last week, month, or year. But there is never any guarantee that the next dip wont turn into a major retracement. If I may borrow Alan's phrase, we live on the "Hard Right Edge" where all we can see is what has past, not what the future will bring. A lot of us believe the past tells us the most probable future, which is a fundamental tenant of Technical Analysis. That said, I will keep buying dips (or maybe even a breakout or two) and taking profits when they rise, and I'll keep buying what looks like dips (and breakouts) that turn out to be the onset of major retracements. But every time I do it I have to be prepared for the lower probability outcome. How one avoids or subsequently deals with the pull backs seems to be what separates real traders from the lucky speculators, and from the host of people who got into this game at a time when IT DOESN'T GET ANY BETTER OR EASIER THAN THIS !!!! and have still lost all their money buying dips (or breakouts) and selling dumps. This truly is a once in a life time opportunity. I respectfully disagree. I would be a fool to say the market will continue it's present rate of growth, or that the next bear is never going to wake up, but I think it's equally absurd to proclaim that the current environment, and the opportunity it holds is a once in a life time thing. The environment may change, the preferred side might flip to the short on a whole lot of stocks that have been running, and we might all have to adapt, but there will still be opportunity for those who can adjust to the changing environment. As you have noted, the environment has changed. The market culture has changed dramatically. So much so that I will go out on a limb and say we might never again see the kind of bear market you are referring too. In the old market, people did not have the mechanism, nor, because of those high commissions could they afford to bail out of bad positions on a moments notice, or seize the opportunity to jump on the next potential high flyer. Relatively few people even tried to do it on their own. All that has changed, and it's probably only the beginning of what we will see. There will always be retracements; that is unavoidable, but there is no way to see past the hard right edge and proclaim that they will hold lesser opportunity than the ones we have now. Dan