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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (7237)3/11/2000 2:03:00 PM
From: Dave  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18137
 
Dan, well you made me do it again ...

while I agree with basically everything that you stated in your post, what I was trying to accomplish is to add a bit of reality to the current topic of discussion. I think that new or potential traders need to be aware of the fact that the current environment is "arguably", the "BEST THAT IT HAS EVER BEEN ... and MAY EVER BE" ... in our lifetimes. I completely agree that the markets are totally different than they were even a few years ago, and yes, like everybody else on this thread ... I've been making a ton of money! But, I don't for one minute believe that the type of opportunities that the current market environment is offering will continue for a long time. The moves that a breakout stock makes in one day, are now greater than a move that I would have expected to make in two weeks, just 10 years ago! We have a very narrow market where almost all of the money is being pumped into just one sector (tech), and trading doesn't get any easier than that!

I hope, wish and prey that the market will stay this active and volatile forever, but like everything else in life ... this too shall pass. I do believe that a good trader will be able to make a living no matter how tough the markets conditions are, but at this point in time, there are way too many Bull Market geniuses!

Regards,

Dave



To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (7237)3/11/2000 3:00:00 PM
From: Jon Tara  Respond to of 18137
 
"In the old market, people did not have the mechanism, nor, because of those high commissions could they afford to bail out of bad positions on a moments notice,"

I strongly suspect that if this market ends in a one-day "crash", that that is precisely what people will NOT be able to do - "bail out at a moment's notice".

It will be your worst Datek nightmare. Or Schwab. Or Ameritrade. Or MB Trading. etc. etc. etc.

Hell, I'll go out on a limb and predict to some degree when it will happen: sometime after decimalization.

We are NOT ready for decimalization - it is going to cause an extreme system-capacity problem. In a post-decimal crash, the tape will run later than it did in 1987 - because it likely will not run at all.

Besides being blind with no quotes, most of the major online brokerages trading systems will likely fail or become extremally sluggish, and it certainly will do you no good to try to reach your broker on the phone - they have all leveraged all this wonderful technology to cut staff to a minimum.

If such a scenario does occur, I only hope that I have no or a minimal position at the time, which is one of the reasons why one of my goals is to stay out of the market much more than I am in. (In an ideal world, I'd like to make, say, 4 5-minute trades a day.)

It's a game of musical chairs. I'd like to be sitting when the music stops. :)