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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (41648)	3/11/2000 12:08:00 PM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Mehrdad, You often quote emerging markets growing 47% quarter over quarter. Now you ascribe revenues of $500 M.A couple questions: Is the $500 M going forward from this quarter? Based on what assumptions?, and most importantly, What were the revenues in the preceding two quarters that led you to the 47% growth figure? Thanks, Peter Line item #4, the Emerging markets, according to their last 10Q this area was growing at 47% Q on Q, if last quarter's growth rate and revenues are any indication then this area should have revenues in excess of $500 million. Because of the growth rate and high margins in this area I will give it a multiple of 4X sales. That ascribes $2 billion, which is another $6 a share.

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (41648)	3/11/2000 12:44:00 PM
From: cordob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Mehrdad, I agree with your valuation reasoning. All this talk about COMS being worthless w/o PALM makes me sick. This company makes good products, is working hard to get around to the new technologies where they have the advantage of a working international distribution channel etc. Look at the valuation (simpler) this way, at $ 1.26 earnings for this year and a p/e of 30 you get $ 47. (the av. s&p500 p/e is now about 36) This p/e does not really take into account the large amount of COMS cash, which will do two things: a) increase profits thru decreased interest payments and b) give to opportunity to buy technology when it is available to get a jumpstart into new areas. Buying it for cash I mean, not stock. The PALM worries me a lot more. Technology is nice but there is going to be a hell of a competition. Personally I have had a Nokia communicator (cell phone/computer) for about a year and it is a great device where everything is in one box. Nokia sold about 80 million phones last year so they definitely have the mass production knowhow (how many of these are the advanced type I do not know, only a small % I would think). But the ïsmartïphones are coming in droves and thatïs where the competition will be. I would sell PALM as soon as I get them (now at a p/e of 700 to 800 very vulnerable) and keep the COMS ïcoreïshares. (or maybe I will try to short partly PALM to lock in some sure profits) Always like to read your posts Cor

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (41648)	3/11/2000 2:10:00 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Again, re: 2> Does 3Com have another $3+ billion in investments? Could you point me to the filing or other source that shows that 3Com has or had 4.6% of JNPR?

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (41648)	3/12/2000 5:14:00 PM
From: milkenshair	Respond to of 45548

In my limited humble opinion, your analysis is correct. I recall somewhat similar analysis made by those who supported Apple when in 1998 it was tanking at the $15 range [now $125 3/4]. Back then, FUD [fear, uncertainty and doubting] folks were saying about Apple what those same types are now saying about 3COM. FUD commentary about 3COM is history repeating itself in respect to what happened to Apple when people, including myself, fell victim to the "dump Apple because they are finished" crowd [I lost $110,000 in profits cause I went along with the superficial FUD crowd without doing my own DD]. :-( Certainly not a lot of money, but I don't like making dumb decisions. I think all the brouhaha over 3Com declining since PALM's IPO day is motivated by those who are disappointed that in the short term [like in the first three post-IPO days] 3COM did not soar into the high 100 or 200 range. There's a lot of manipulation going on in the short term with 3COM, but one thing cannot be denied, 3COM is a solid company with sound financials and business outlook. Don't let all the short term flim flam influence your long term decisions related to 3COM. Remember that 3COM cannot come out during the silent period to calm all the chickens running around with their heads cut off or to comment on short term piranha/speculator activity. And ask yourself this: if 3COM is crap, why are institutional investors buying up shares? So they can be sued by the people whose money they are responsible for? I don't think so. The fundamentals of financial/investment/market analysis cannot be ignored. I think it quite reasonable to rely on your analysis and figures to conclude where 3COM is and where it will be going. EOM