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To: mu_basher who wrote (50737)3/13/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
--Greg
Going into earning two weeks from now, I do anticipate further upside, though the actual statistical probability of further upside as of today's close is less than 5%. Today's price movement was significant, just above 1 standard deviation greater than the daily average price change for the past month, but today's volume, slightly below the average volume for the past month, was not significant. As for any split, I seem to be alone in believing that two nickels have the same value as one dime, so the simpletons who believe 1000 shares of a $60 stock are worth more than 500 shares of a $120 stock, will probably push MU up further.
I also anticipate that earnings may come in below $.80/share, a run-rate that makes $130 a little insupportable without an increase in DRAM prices. Except for a few days a week or so ago, DRAM has done nothing but go down. A post-earnings, sell-on-news sell-off seems to me highly likely.
Best
--Steve



To: mu_basher who wrote (50737)3/13/2000 7:33:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Greg, don't put me in the camp of the bears for the last six months, the whole idea of the "scenario" was a bullish stand, at least, I thought so. In another three weeks, we will probably have the forced conversion and one would expect many of these shares (those not yet hedged) to come out and look for new "strong" hands. I think that if that occurs during one of the market periodic malaises (which I believe may be more and more frequent), then a major move down could indeed be anticipated.

Zeev