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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (32762)	3/16/2000 2:33:00 AM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Here's my two cents worth of biased opinion! I am sure NT took into consideration that Xros is not a finished product -- but NT has the resources & the engineering talent to add the missing pieces of network intelligence/signalling quickly into the Xros architecture. Remember also what NT is also really after..........the "rocket scientists" that Qtera & Xros employs are coming to NT along with the purchase. The value of top optics engineer/scientists right now is incalculable and should be measured as a function of the Optics market potential which is by anyone's account enormous. There are only few truely brilliant optics engineers and you don't grow people like Josef Straus or Farih Diner or band of propeller heads at Qtera and Xros overnight. There is a huge scramble for top talent in the optics field and if NT has locked up some of the top optics scientists for the next 5 years (hopefully that is part of the deal!), then any traditional measure of valuation is not appropriate. This is an extreme analogy but how much would Hitler have paid to BUY Einstein's brains/talent at the height of WWII when US and Nazi Germany were trying to build the first atomic bomb? Probably the $ value would have been stratospheric -- after all the fate of mankind and world dominance could have been affected by the intellectual knowledge owned by few physicsists at the time. Optics is THE battlefront that will determine who the big winner will be in the network infrastructure industry. For the first time, NT has an opportunity to take decisive lead and push over LU and keep Cisco where they belong - selling boxes to companies. It's good to see NT taking big bets and "moving at the speed of light". Optics will be $50 to $100 billion market in a few years. More importantly, it will DISLODGE the current form of electro-mechanical switching paradigm. Light will be the heart of next generation network and if NT takes a dominant position in the optics backbone network, the ramification extends BEYOND the $50 to $100 mill optics market as all the edge routers & switches will eventually also be converted/upgraded to photonics based technology..............and here is the key point you may not realize -- interoperability between the optics backbone and the edge routers/switches/devices (including the huge enterprise routers) will need to be tightly integrated into the backbone network in which there is NO STANDARD, in which NT is likely to SET THE STANDARD on their proprietary optics network design. And at that point, guess who is going to have a huge advantage to not only maintain their dominance over the backbone,long-haul optics network market but more importantly, all the Metro, and Edge router/switching market? Roth is making intelligent gamble and GOING FOR NO. 1 That's great to see from a CEO of a huge company -- ability to understand the direction of networking technology and then ACTING on it to take a dominant position. With the acquisition moves they've made in the past few years, NT now actually has a good shot at not only dislodging LU but taking DOMINANT share of the networking market. It's no wonder CRISCO CEO has been saying NT is the real competitor -- not LU.