Fellow Newbies, Uncle Frank, and List:
(warning! long post!)
I've been lurking about a month now, and upon reading the post from substancep(s?), figured that maybe it's a good time to drop down, tell my story and de-lurk. I mean, since substancep and I are in the same boat (figuring out how to enter the market at this weird and unique moment in time)... So here goes...
It all started on my birthday (Dec. 31st). That's when I made my first mistake: I gave my dad (right after Xmas and the Qualcomm Euphoria) a chunk of money to "help me invest."
Now, I should say here that my dad is a former engineer who lives near San Diego and who started collecting Qualcomm when it was at about 7. And he's had Rambus for years... Anyway, I guess he was caught up in the post-split frenzy (having just made ????zillion dollars himself) and on 12/31/99 my Dear Old Dad instantly put EVERY SINGLE NICKEL I HAD TRUSTED HIM WITH INTO QUALCOMM!!
At 160.
:-(
Needless to say (and having read about tulips), I thought he was insane.
I don't know what I would have done if I hadn't by absolute chance been tracking my "portfolio" (well, I *did* have a mutual fund also) on SI. From the Qualcomm board I found the G&K board, and from G&K I found... sanity.
Then, I read TRFM. The Big Revelation: My dad wasn't insane!
I instantly forgave my dad. Then, beginning/middle of February, I took the "divide and conquer approach" (as opposed to the Russian Army approach), sold half the Q (at a loss) and started slowly feeding the the rest into various primates, anthropoids, pretenders to thrones, and a few shiny pebbles (Grabbed some ELON at 68! heh, heh!). I put about a third into SUNW, some CSCO, INTC and even MSFT (feel much better about using those products now), some WIND, and then to spice it up some SNDK (hooray!), a little CREE, a dab of VRTS, a starter of TVGIA (GEMST on the cheap), ETEK (likewise JDSU), BRCM, PMCS, a little twist of CTXS and a smidgeon of NTAP.
Then--and this is probably the main thing for the market newbie problem--I committed to building up these small positions (kind of dollar cost averaging) over the course of this year, a little bit every month, into creating slowly, over time, a nice coherent gorilla portfolio.
That is the main key I think for substancep to consider for getting in to the market at a point like this, especially if you're not experienced: wade in slowly, a little bit every month. That way if there's a big tank, well---you're happy! Cheap for that month's buy! And then you're happy too with a leap up. Either way, you win. And then, after 6 months or a year you can reevaluate your position--without having risked it all at once.
So far this has worked, I recovered the loss on QCOM, and came out of this week not too shabby at all...
I should also add here that I might have an easier time wrapping my head around some of these companies since I have (with my husband) a small "high-tech" company that actually uses some of the more obscure products these companies produce. (BTW, I found TFM also amazing from a business strategy perspective)
In fact, I'm thinking this could be an avenue (as a non-tech-head myself, my backgroung is filmmaking) through which I could contribute something of value here. We use Cree LEDs (for example) in our facial-tracking system, deal with fairly complex data and networking issues, work with hardware and software engineers on the staff, etc., etc. We also attend conferences (some of us went to the Game conference in San Jose where Bill just revealed the X-Box). In fact, my husband was bugging me to buy Nvidia a couple of weeks ago but I refused on the grounds that they did not fit "the Gorilla criteria."
I don't think I'm quite ready to develop a "Project Hunt" analysis yet--must read TRFM again (when Dad gives it back) and get that dang-darned lingo down.
Well. That's probably a long enough post for starters. I'll go back to lurking for a while now. Except to say that I live not far from the Santa Monica 3rd Street Promenade, and the next time Lindy has a "performance" I may just wander over...
If substancep want(s?) to mail me privately I can recommend some references for gradual market entry strategies.
I have some strategy questions for the group, but I will post them later...
Thanks to the board for everything I have learned thus far... and especially for saving my father-daughter relationship.
Juliet (real name, NOT literary reference) |
