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Technology Stocks : Terayon - S CDMA player (TERN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (362)	3/16/2000 7:07:00 PM
From: Dan B.	Respond to of 1658

I posted this on the CMTO thread awhile back. In the "case studies" from Terayon's web pages is the story of an S-CDMA deployment in the USA: TCAinternet, since bought by COX. Here's the pricing plan they offer, to the best of my knowledge. tcainternet.com Where else am I going to find speeds at least double a 56k modem, up to 250kbps or so, for 24.95 per month? For $40.00/mo. they offer speeds 10 to 30 times a 56k modem. I e-mailed their Tech. support asking if the prices were in fact still based on the use of S-CDMA modems, and received a response indicating only that there are no known(to the respondent) plans to use anything other than TERN modems, as they are "working well for us." Frankly, if the not terribly conclusive(IMO) anti-S-CDMA technical information offered by some on SI were true in ultimate implications, I can scarcely imagine the prices for service offered above would be possible(though admittedly, I'm not 100% sure the above pricings aren't in part based on deployment of TERN TDMA based modems- but I don't think so). At any rate, I've seen no conclusive evidence that anyone can offer cable operators the ability to offer service over coax at a deployment cost so low as when using S-CDMA. Upgrade plans for a system such as TCA internet's above, would, as I understand it, include deployment of Terayons TDMA based DOCSIS modems for higher speed offerings in the future(if not already?). If TERN in fact oneday creates S-CDMA product compatible with DOCSIS, then they would perhaps be the lowest cost start-up solution, and also perhaps offer the best guaranteed service under poor noise conditions that MAY(ggg) trouble the competition in many locales, even when upgraded. I feel Mr. Gilder believes that until there is fiber to the home to replace coax altogether, the advantages of S-CDMA in handling probable noise problems, would give it superiority to anything running without it, in many cases for a long time to come. A major point of his is also that S-CDMA has allowed operators to roll-out service to ALL their customers much quicker than waiting for full HFC upgrades to be completed. I could be wrong about Gilder's thoughts here. Whatever he IS thinking, also could just be wrong. Still, it seems clear to me that the issues are not so clear cut as anti-TERN forces would have us take on "may"bes. S-CDMA deployment results seem to be well beyond what some once indicated could even be possible. And of course, TERN is becomming many things. The Terayon acquisitions are numerous and hopefully well thought out. Perhaps now Bernard Levy's favored cable solution(I have no reason to think his high opinion of DMT isn't correct) will have its place in TERN's future too. It's all almost enough to make me want to buy TERN. As I've always indicated, it's just too danged foggy for me. Plus, with Loral and others soon enough to be offering SAT. based broadband access- well, who knows what tomorrow MAY bring? By the by, once again Mr. Gilder has shown his humility and consistent desire to give credit where it's due- by offering on his website yesterday that he is just "ranting and raving" about technologies- while any worship should go to the creators of the technologies. That seems accurate to me, eh Bernard? His own not-untypical words, FWIW. Dan B

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (362)	3/16/2000 7:09:00 PM
From: Dan B.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1658

I posted this on the CMTO thread awhile back. In the "case studies" from Terayon's web pages is the story of an S-CDMA deployment in the USA: TCAinternet, since bought by COX. Here's the pricing plan they offer, to the best of my knowledge. tcainternet.com Where else am I going to find speeds at least double a 56k modem, up to 250kbps or so, for 24.95 per month? For $40.00/mo. they offer speeds 10 to 30 times a 56k modem. I e-mailed their Tech. support asking if the prices were in fact still based on the use of S-CDMA modems, and received a response indicating only that there are no known(to the respondent) plans to use anything other than TERN modems, as they are "working well for us." Frankly, if the not terribly conclusive(IMO) anti-S-CDMA technical information offered by some on SI were true in ultimate implications, I can scarcely imagine the prices for service offered above would be possible(though admittedly, I'm not 100% sure the above pricings aren't in part based on deployment of TERN TDMA based modems- but I don't think so). At any rate, I've seen no conclusive evidence that anyone can offer cable operators the ability to offer service over coax at a deployment cost so low as when using S-CDMA. Upgrade plans for a system such as TCA internet's above, would, as I understand it, include deployment of Terayons TDMA based DOCSIS modems for higher speed offerings in the future(if not already?). If TERN in fact oneday creates S-CDMA product compatible with DOCSIS, then they would perhaps be the lowest cost start-up solution, and also perhaps offer the best guaranteed service under poor noise conditions that MAY(ggg) trouble the competition in many locales, even when upgraded. I feel Mr. Gilder believes that until there is fiber to the home to replace coax altogether, the advantages of S-CDMA in handling probable noise problems, would give it superiority to anything running without it, in many cases for a long time to come. A major point of his is also that S-CDMA has allowed operators to roll-out service to ALL their customers much quicker than waiting for full HFC upgrades to be completed. I could be wrong about Gilder's thoughts here. Whatever he IS thinking, also could just be wrong. Still, it seems clear to me that the issues are not so clear cut as anti-TERN forces would have us take on "may"bes. S-CDMA deployment results seem to be well beyond what some once indicated could even be possible. And of course, TERN is becomming many things. The Terayon acquisitions are numerous and hopefully well thought out. Perhaps now Bernard Levy's favored cable solution(I have no reason to think his high opinion of DMT isn't correct) will have its place in TERN's future too. It's all almost enough to make me want to buy TERN. But as I've always indicated, it's just too danged foggy for me. Plus, with Loral and others soon enough to be offering SAT. based broadband access- well, who knows what tomorrow MAY bring? By the by, once again Mr. Gilder has shown his humility and consistent desire to give credit where it's due- by offering on his website yesterday that he is just "ranting and raving" about technologies- while any worship should go to the creators of the technologies. That seems accurate to me, eh Bernard? His own not-untypical words, FWIW. Dan B