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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joanne Fishman who wrote (19624)	3/17/2000 12:18:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42804

OT I feel I need to explain to people why I sold a stock like MRVC with all it's exciting potential still ahead of it, and why I stopped posting. This was primarily a personal decision. Sector's Odyssey To understand why I sold, you first have to understand the position I was in. I had been in MRVC since early 1997. MRVC was already a large part of my portfolio at the time of the 8/27/98 warning and price plunge to $6. At that point, I had a big decision to make - sell MRVC at $6, take my losses and move on, or load up the truck. Was the market right, or was I right? Had I been wrong to like MRVC at $19? I needed more information, so I went to the annual meeting in October 1998, met Noam, took the facilities tour and looked closely at the situation. I came back convinced that I had made the right decision, and that MRVC was a terrific value at $6. Making the big bet. OK. It was time to load up the truck. I bought 2 « times more shares than I previously had (ending up with just over a quadruple) at $6 over the next few weeks. Significantly, as I will discuss later, these shares were all in a R/O IRA. MRVC had already been a large portion of my portfolio BEFORE the quadrupling at $6, which skewed it heavily. Think how lopsided my portfolio became when MRVC was $120 and rising. The big decision. I have always viewed myself as a "value" investor - aggressive maybe and willing to make gutsy moves, but always where I perceived value. After the Q4 earnings announcement, the merger with FOCI (but not until Q2), the exiting of their switching business, and the new products not yet contributing, left me feeling "uneasy" about the next few months - even with all the potential and good news coming. So when MRVC began taking off like a rocket, I kept feeling even more uneasy - especially because almost ALL my portfolio value was in MRVC! In addition, the numbers had reached "critical mass" for my retirement goals. The combination gave some sleepless nights. I could continue to roll the dice with MRVC, or listen to the siren call of retirement financial freedom for my family, RIGHT THERE. The brass ring was RIGHT THERE, GO FOR IT. I grabbed it, selling first calls at $108 (bad move), then shares at $118, $128, $144, and $150. Every time I sold, MRVC went higher, so I sold more. Feeling depressed. I had done it! A secure financial future sitting in cash. BIG PROBLEM - it was almost ALL in IRAs and I am not near 59 «. All I had to do was reallocate it conservatively, figure out how to tap the IRAs (it turns out this is easy and INTERESTING, so I will discuss this in a separate post) and I had it made. Instead of euphoria though, I felt depressed (talk about human nature), why - because MRVC KEPT GOING UP AND ISSUING GOOD NEWS - with me OUT. I got so disgusted, I totally ignored all things MRVC until the past few days. Locusts and Honey While I was wandering around feeling depressed with an almost all cash position, (action withdrawal?) I got interested in one little stock in particular (more on this later) and in the biotechs, which I started researching. I made a couple quick trades in CYTO (one was VERY nice) while I was reading threads and trying to learn this area. Suddenly the Nasdaq started correcting, especially in the biotechs. MRVC also started falling, but was still way out of range. Then the biotechs entered what I hope is a capitulation phase, and MRVC plunged too. I bought more CYTO at $13 « ( too early as it turned out). Then yesterday CEGE hit levels almost irresistible to me. At $29 it was trading basically at a cash (+stock) level. I bought a good chunk. Today it dropped even further, so I bought more. CYTO dropped more too - so I bought more. MRVC dropped further - like a rock, so I reentered also. So much for my cash position and secure retirement! <g> Next up. Next, for all you rich MRVCites, I'll do an OT post on what I found on tapping IRAs early. I also want to do an OT post on an interesting little stock I found with exciting potential for large long term appreciation and some parallels (in some ways) to MRVC. I still haven't read the MRVC threads for weeks, and probably won't be able to catch up (especially with the NCAA going on) until this weekend. For now I'm just glad to be back!

To: Joanne Fishman who wrote (19624)	3/17/2000 12:24:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Respond to of 42804

OT post - unless you have had MRVC in IRAs since $6. Tapping IRAs early (before age 59 «) without penalty. In my situation, successful IRA investing led to a situation where most of my financial assets were locked up. How to get at them early without penalty? To my surprise, the IRS provides SEVERAL ways to withdraw money without penalty. The way I am looking at is called "Substantially equal" withdrawals over 5 years or until age 59 « (whichever is longer). There are 4 ways to figure these withdrawals, but they only document two in the publications, making me go to a main library for 1989 bulletins. These four ways are called 1) Term Certain, 2) Refigure life expectancy, 3) Amortization method, 4) Annuity Factor method. Each method results in different withdrawal amounts. In the last two methods, (the ones they don't document in pub 590) the withdrawals are substantially higher. I won't bore you with all the details, but the bottom line is for others in similar situations, YOU CAN DO IT. In my case, I'm wondering, WHY NOT (seeing a financial advisor real soon). See IRS Pub 590 Chapter 1, and Internal Revenue Cumulative bulletin 1989-1, notice 89-25 if this interests you.

To: Joanne Fishman who wrote (19624)	3/17/2000 12:41:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

OT During my "MRVC-less" wandering, I think I have found an interesting little undiscovered (by the general market) stock, with some exciting possibilities and products for LONG TERM appreciation. Dvdw put me on to this, and I have been researching it for some time now. Disclaimer - Do your OWN DD and if you invest, DON'T EXPECT this stock to move soon (it might, but it could also sit for a while yet). This is a LONG-TERM value play. The company is KVH Industries (KVHI). kvh.com How about Mobile High-speed Internet, TV and GPS via satellite anywhere in the world while on the move for the Marine, RV, commercial trucking and Military markets? They also have a fiber optic capability that is being integrated into their products, and is just scratching the surface of new possibilities, some that appear major. They have about 60 patents, I think, including a KEY one controlling TWO-WAY communication via Satellite antenna. This key patent is the subject of an infringement lawsuit KVH has filed against their main competitor Datron, (DTSI). If upheld, this could be VERY significant. The patent, #5,835,057 and titled "Mobile satellite communication system including a dual-frequency, low-profile, self-steering antenna assembly."- can be viewed here: 164.195.100.11 It seems pretty comprehensive to me, but I am no patent attorney. See this recent PR for their interesting new Two-way mobile internet product, Trac Vision G4 Message 12843047 Also, they apparently have discovered an unexpected new product with possibly major implications, in a $1 BILLION market - fiber optic high-voltage current sensing, which has been developed jointly with a customer over two years, and for which KVH is "pursuing a key partnership with a major industry player and hopes to have a working relationship established in the near future.". messages.yahoo.com There are some parallels to MRVC here as well. 1) the company has been in the process of reinventing itself for the last two years, 2) an acquisition and heavy R&D expenses dropped them into a loss position for over a year, 3) The market (which is extremely near sighted) dropped them to ridiculously low levels over 20 months, from $10 down to $1, 4) A new stream of exciting products and markets is just now emerging, 5) The company is about to move back into the black later this year and 6) The mainstream market has ignored them, or remains skeptical. Even so, the stock has recently moved from $4 to $10 and now back to $7. I think this could be a $50-$60+ stock in a year or so and I have taken a substantial position here in the last month. For anyone interested in continuing this discussion, join me on the KVHI thread. Some of you MRVC'ers are the best DD people I know, so if it stands up to your analysis, I will know we have another upcoming winner here. I would love to hear what others think.