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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4492)	3/17/2000 12:28:00 AM
From: manohar kanuri	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

The Economist has an unerring knack for flogging yesterday's news in breathless high gobbledygook. A bunch of disgruntled, anonymous, wannabe boffins making believe that their words actually sway empir... er, worlds. This should confirm them as a contrarian signal, which would be quite nice. Just desserts all around if you'll pardon the pun? IMO, of course, all imo.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4492)	3/17/2000 5:37:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 6018

Jay's analogy with global exploration a few centuries back is right on! I'm old enough to have lived through a number of bubbles: one was in military electronics, back in 1957. Any little or big stock with that tag quintupled fast. But the scope of military electronics or of tulips cannot be compared with the revolution leading to instant contact between business to business, person <--> business, person to person that we are in the midst of. In Japan this is now being accompanied by a second revolution, from a closed stock market, highly manipulated, to an open, stockholders are boss and have a right to know, situation. In the days before Jasdaq there were some Japanese companies which reported openly and completely. Matsushita and its subsidiary companies are a good example. You could certainly believe their annual reports. But such companies were (are) not in the majority. The man on the street was rightly suspicious. Unfortunately he fell into the arms of sharks like Nomura, full of advice. A number of my friends in Japan were in this situation, relying on a fox to give them a good tip on one of the mysterious companies. Jasdaq won't be perfect since it will be run by human beings but it has potentialities that the Economist can't see. There's no startup company in the world that would satisfy the Economist's definition of a good investment. Every one of them has more cash going in than coming out. I myself wouldn't invest in an isolated start up company because I don't have the time to conduct the thorough investigation that that would require. A "netbatsu" package is different, much safer. I believe the principal dangers to Softbank are not internal but external, i.e. political. These political dangers are probably less than I think, because each of us can have a more or less warped viewpoint depending on our personal history.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4492)	3/17/2000 6:34:00 PM
From: swisstrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Cross pollination from RB post...thought this one was interesting enough to post here: By: ghengis2 Reply To: 2841 by Jonas Friday, 17 Mar 2000 at 1:26 AM EST Post # of 2876 Jonas, Netanalyst. Re The Economist piece The Economist is often required reading if only to understand the current state of British Keynesian thought. As with many of its essays, this one misses the overall as well as recent analogous situations. Softbank and its management team, however discordant, have enormous if not preeminent clout in the global online community. That it currently is partnered with the likes of Nasdaq, IBM, Microsoft, Vivendi, Tokyo Electric, News Corp, The World Bank, Orix, Global Crossing, Goldman Sachs, Yahoo and others like them foreshadows not only future financial strength but also the attendant political clout to obtain favorable regulatory treatment of future projects (see eg Cheung Wah's whitewash exemption, Nasdaq Japan, the Japan unlisted securities exchange and the NCB takeover approval). Two similar instances of companies poised to dominate their respective industries despite macro and microeconomic uncertainties can be found in recent market history. In the early 1990s, Citibank, nearly bankrupted by enormous losses on unwise lending throughout the developing world, was effectively bailed out by the US government and was available for the the exorbitant price of $11 a share. Shrewd dealmaking under John Reed and Sandy Weill have made it one of the dominant global corporations, and there is nothing to prevent Softbank, in like fashion, from remodeling NCB profitably as described by netanalyst in an earlier post. Likewise, three years ago Yahoo was roundly viewed as an economic figment of day traders' imaginations at a time when it was believed that no one could make money on the internet, period. Res ipsa. The fact is that Softbank is executing on a far reaching plan to dominate the global online economy as described in the Financial Times last spring/summer. It will be one of the preeminent providers of online content and full-line financial services, as well as industry financing and venture capital, for years or decades to come. But hey, I'm no economist. In twenty-one years in the financial markets I've made and lost lots and hopefully received a fair education in such things. Leaving aside the tedious technical aspects of recent share movements, this one looks very strong in the intermedite and long term, so much so that I'd like to up the stakes by trading warrants in Frankfurt. (BTW, one of my B/D contacts intimated GS would consider doing a warrant transaction for trades in the min. range of US $ 2-3 M). Of course, warrants rank up with options, margin and futures as the surest and fastest ways to lose one's shirt and absolutely are not for the new, inexperienced or marginally funded investor. Do not try this at home. Agree Jonas that April 15 (no, 18, to allow full accounting for margin redemptions to meet US tax obligations out of taxable accounts) will be the outside date by which we should know which way sftbf will be headed. Meanwhile, SFBNF appears less volatile, has greater alpha than sftbf and gives good exposure to the weak euro to boot, much like the GS warrants. (GS should be a great friend to Softbank, as they make it trading the stock up and selling the call warrants at the same time.) Last I heard, neither stupidity, cowardice nor jumping on to ride herd on a winner early precludes one from making money in stocks. Then again, nothing can ever guaranty it either. Thanks to all for the insightful analysis, global Softbank news and comment.