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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (43473)	3/18/2000 3:51:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Bull Ridah, my wave count on the nyse a/d looks like five waves from april 99, which would be C from april 98, we are also nearing the triangle apex of the nyse summation index that terry whitman pointed out several months ago. Lowry's has a study of panic selling climaxes, they use a 90% downside day(s) followed by 90% upside days as a selling climax and reversal (90% points lost + 90% downside volume is a selling climax and vice versa for the reversal day) Although we did not have such a downside day where everybody said get me out, we have had a merciless 6 weeks of selling in the cyclicals and other "value issues". This week we definitely had a 90% upside day. I had thought that we would have to some kind of selling climax like we did in october 98 and maybe we still will, but right now i'm not in the henny penny the sky is falling camp This "old economy" "new economy" stuff i'm going to take a a giant contrary indicator as everybody has been panic selling get me out of old economy stocks and panic buying get me in anything tech. This megaphone/broadening formation could easily resolve bullish even as everyone is proclaiming the old economy and the dow as dead. At some point there will be a resolution to the tension created in this massive divergence and it may not be in the form of a crash that the bears are all pining for, it may just be a reversal of the narrowing that began at the july 98 top. We may have gotten just the first preview of this in the last week. b