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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (43559)	3/18/2000 4:21:00 PM
From: Walt Deemer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lowry's has a study of panic selling climaxes, they use a 90% downside day(s) followed by 90% upside days as a selling climax and reversal (90% points lost + 90% downside volume is a selling climax and vice versa for the reversal day) Although we did not have such a downside day where everybody said get me out, we have had a merciless 6 weeks of selling in the cyclicals and other "value issues". This week we definitely had a 90% upside day. A list of 90% Upside Days that were not preceded by 90% Downside Days since 1970 ("most of which", in Lowry's words, "had very bullish implications"): 5/11/90, 8/2/84 and 8/3/84, 7/20/83, 10/6/82, 8/20/82, 8/17/82, 8/2/78, 11/26 and 11/29 of 1971, and 11/3/70.

To: bobby beara who wrote (43559)	3/18/2000 8:37:00 PM
From: John T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, I know you are a chartist, so I thought I'd refer you to some charts of the broadening formation on the Dow. You mentioned it in your last message. Go to the following web site and look under "New Trade Set Ups' in the middle of the page. There are two charts of the Dow: geocities.com By the way, according to Bob Prechter, the Dow finished Wave 1 down when it bottomed around 9750. Prechter said that in the corrective Wave 2 up, the Dow would retrace 38% to 62% of Wave 1 down. As of Friday, the Dow has retraced 50% of Wave 1. Prechter says, "When that retracement is done wave 3 will produce a more dramatic decline than wave 1." (I know -- nobody listens to Prechter and if his prediction doesn't come true he will just revise his Elliot Wave count. <g>). Personally, I don't see the Dow breaking out above 12,000 (the top of the broadening pattern) soon. The bottom around 9750 was not confirmed by the requisite fear and panic.