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To: Steve Robinett who wrote (50849)3/17/2000 8:08:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
Steve, at least, according to the scenario, the current run up is "engineered" to assure conversion. There many good reasons why such a conversion would be beneficial to MU, improvement in the balance sheet, readying same balance sheet to take on additional debt (to complete Lehi and complete upgrades), to launch RDRAM, etc. The engineers of that rally have a lot to gain from this rise as well, first, if MU will indeed go back to the well for let say a billion or two, they have a solid $50 to 100 MM at stake as underwriting fees. The downside for the stock is that engineered runs rarely last much longer than necessary, and unless someone can make a case for MU earning $10/share in the next two three years, the stock will no longer have this engineered support and fall of its own weight.

The conversion itself will not be too onerous , 20 MM shares is less than 10% of the outstanding shares and is absorbable, and, IMHO, probably largely hedged already, the danger is the cessation of "support operation. People, of course might indeed think that the $150 target suggested by a recent analyst is justified based on this year forecast of close to $4/share and next year forecast of $6/share. I for one do not find these forecasts "pocketable" (I would not be surprised to see next year a return to a quarter or two of losses, with Samsung aggressively betting on RMBS and MU still waiting to decide where the wind is blowing, of course, Appleton might be right, but having taken INTC's money he cannot wait too long), and for a commodity type company, a PE of 20 on next year peak earnings (the year after that should probably see a peak in the semi cycle, if not already in 2001) is , IMTO, quite "rich". Can MU go higher? Absolutely, the technicals are all in "go" and HAL should have long ago declared a new buy (Larry, is HAL sleeping?), but for this player, getting out at $110 and leaving a bunch on the table was quite satisfactory.

Zeev